Derek Jeter has been raking since passing 3,000 hits

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Since Derek Jeter reached 3,000 career hits on July 9th, 2011, he has played in 73 games. His numbers over those games are:

334 PAs, 43 RBI, 47 R, 5 HR, .331/.383/.450

Very impressive, especially considering how poorly he hit in 2011 before reaching 3,000 hits (66 games, 312 PAs, 22 RBI, 40 R, 2 HR, .257/.321/.329).

I thought I’d compare Jeter’s post-3000 performance with other recent players to surpass that same total, to see if they, too, hit well when the individual pressure was off.

Craig Biggio played in only 69 more career games after reaching 3,000 hits in 2007. Over those 69 games, his line was a dreadful 249 PAs, 23 RBI, 23 R, 5 HR, .253/.260/.362.

Rafael Palmeiro played in only 22 more career games after reaching 3,000 hits in 2005. Over those 22 games, his line was a fairly horrid 90 PAs, 9 RBI, 7 R, 3 HR, .241/.322/.380.

Rickey Henderson reached 3,000 hits on the final day of the 2001 season, coming on October 7th after the season had been delayed due to the events of 9/11/2001. He played 102 more games in his career, with a line of 306 plate appearances, 21 RBI, 47 R, 7 HR, .219/.356/.339. Rickey could take a walk right up until the end, but that’s about all he could manage.

Cal Ripken reached 3,000 early in the 2000 season and played in 201 additional career games. Over those games he had 811 PAs, 118 RBI, 79 R, 27 HR, .246/.289/.396 (not incredibly bad.) To compare to Jeter, if we look at just the 85 games right after he reached 3000 hits, Ripken’s line was 337 PAs, 54 RBI, 38 R, 13 HR, .242/.291/.419. Good, but especially coming in a higher offensive environment than Jeter’s playing in right now, not nearly as good.

Wade Boggs appeared in just 10 more games after reaching 3,000 in August of 1999. Over those 10 games, he did quite well, with 33 PAs, 3 RBI, 2 R, 0 HR, .345/.394/.448. Those numbers are comparable to Jeter’s, but over many fewer plate appearances.

Tony Gwynn played in 156 more games after reaching 3,000 hits. Check out this line: 443 PAs, 63 RBI, 51 R, 7 HR, .337/.377/.476. Not too shabby.

Jeter seems intent on playing at least a couple more seasons. If he can stay reasonably healthy and play reasonably well, he has a shot at becoming just the 6th player to reach 3,500 career hits.

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birtelcom

12 years ago

Derek’s slash numbers at home from July 10 last year through yesterday: .382 BA/.442 OBP/.561 SLG/1.0003 OPS

Derek’s slash numbers on the road from July 10 last year through yesterday: .296 BA/.340 OBP/.374 SLG/.714 OPS

Derek’s home SLG is 28th among the 201 hitters with at least 100 home PAs since July 10 last season. His road SLG is 147th among 210 hitters with at least 100 road PAs since last July 10.

These numbers come from David Pinto’s Day-by-Day Database, a nice (free) supplement to b-ref and fangraphs when you want to do searches based on specific date ranges.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Thanks for that tip, Birtelcom. I never heard about that database but am eager to try it.

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

The Day-By-Day Database at baseballmusings.com is not as user friendly in many ways as b-ref or the Play Index, but for certain types of data and searches it’s the only game in town and can be excellent one for those. And David Pinto’s Baseball Musings blog can be fun and interesting, too. Not as good as HHS, but that’s too demanding a standard to apply generally.

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

I ran across Pinto’s database sometime in the last year, and it’s been a valuable resource since. You’re right, though. It’s not user friendly.

Curious. Was there a question about home/road splits in Andy’s post related to players and how they do after reaching 3,000 hits? I might have missed it.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Fun with small sample sizes: Derek Jeter has been, by far, the Yankees best hitter over their first nine games – how long will this continue?

Pat O'Dougherty

12 years ago

As of now, Jeter’s batting average since his 3000th hit is greater than his batting average up thru his 3000th hit. For every member of the 3000 hit club, if you divide their post 3000 BA by their pre 3000 BA, I wonder if Jeter’s result is tops?

vivaeljason

12 years ago

Reply to Pat O'Dougherty

Seeing as how most people get 3,000 as their career is ending, I imagine that Jeter’s production thus far since 3,000th is right there. For points above pre-3000 BA, Jeter is .018 above…Gwynn, who did hit better, is .001 below. Boggs is ahead of Jeter, though.

Neil L.

12 years ago

Links, birtelcon, for the lazy among us?

Just kidding …. I’ll find them for myself and add them to Favorites in my baseball folder.

Wow the number of links to non-fan, credible baseball sites down the side of baseballmusings is amazing! Thanks for the heads-up on Pinto’s and baseball musings.

Neil L.

12 years ago

Andy, Derek Jeter didn’t limp to the 3000-hit line, he has blasted through it. I wonder if some of his “struggles” prior to the milestone were just the result of the enormous pressure associated with joining that elite club (in NY city, no less) and not as a result of erosion of skills. The post 3000-hit batting lines of the other players you have compared him to in the study, with the exception of Tony Gwynn, is surprising. The lack of productivity post-3000 hits, makes me think that the decline had already started to set in for Biggio, Palmeiro et… Read more »

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

I think Jeter is holding to this level of performance on sheer discipline and competitiveness, but he’s not the player he was five years ago-nor could anyone else be. There’s no question his profile has been lifted by being in New York, but, empirically, his stats put him in a small subset of great shortstops.

vivaeljason

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

I think a lot of guys just held on until they got to 3,000. Biggio, Carew, Brock, Palmeiro, Boggs, and Kaline (and Clemente, but obviously other circumstances intervened) all retired the year they got to the milestone. So did Cap Anson if you consider his hit total 3,081.

And all of those guys got to 3,000 at advanced ages –Quite a few of those names were above 40 when they got to 3,000. Far too many of those guys I listed above had two straight bad years (or more) in terms of average and OPS+.

Editor

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

Not everyone limped through and past 3000. In the age 39 season when Paul Molitor reached 3000, he had 225 hits, hit .341 and had 113 RBI. The next two seasons, he was still producing at 162 game rates of 190 hits and 99 RBI. Eddie Murray batted .323 with 129 OPS+ in the year he reached 3000. He slipped to 87 OPS+ the next season, but still had 22 HR, 79 RBI (albeit in 637 PA). But, unfortunately, came back after that for one more season, one too many as it turned out. George Brett in his final season… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Neil L.

Neil, I can certainly see Jeter being a household name if he spent his career in KC. It didn’t hurt George Brett, and he did that before the media landscape dramatically changed. The Internet, cable, satellite, fantasy baseball etc. have created an appetite for information that’s fed by the 24/7 news cycle. We live in the age of reality TV. It seems everything is now known about everyone, at times in nauseating detail. Now as to the first part of your question about Jeter toiling for the Kansas City Royals. No, that I can’t see. Not the way that team… Read more »

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John Autin

12 years ago

With another HR Monday in game 10, Jeter now has 3 HRs and 7 extra-base hits. In 2011, it took him 40 games to reach 7 XBH, and 67 games to reach 3 HRs. This is just the 2nd time DJ has ever hit 3 HRs within the first 10 games. The other was 1999, when the first 10 games saw him hit 4 HRs and bat .462, en route to career bests in virtually everything. I’ve certainly been one of those predicting Jeter’s imminent demise, but as an old ex-SS myself, I’ll be happy if he has a flashback… Read more »

vivaeljason

12 years ago

For the record, I definitely think Jeter is going to hold on at least until he passes Wagner. I think he’s got it in him to get to 3500, especially if he continues playing like he has since getting to 3,000.

I think we’re going to soon need to start discussing where Jeter ranks in the all-time pantheon of shortstops from a hitting perspective. I think you could make the case that he’s #1 overall right now, but I’d be curious to read what others think.

Thomas Court

12 years ago

Reply to vivaeljason

I respectfully disagree that a case can be made for Jeter in #1 spot as a hitting shortstop. Even if he extends his career nicely from this point on, and finishes with 3,700 hits I still have Wagner in the top slot. Now mind you… this is NOT an indictment of Jeter’s greatness as an overall hitter. It just is not fair to compare his accomplishments to perhaps the greatest infielder who ever lived. Consider: Jeter has led the league once in total hits and once in runs scored. Wagner led the league twice in total hits and twice in… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Thomas Court

Yes, not to pile on, but certainly Wagner’s place as the best hitting shortstop of all-time is quite secure. There’s just no way Jeter could possibly overtake his accomplishments. I do hope Jeter sticks around to get the maximum amount of hits possible; he could even scare Henry Aaron for third all-time if he puts up another nice season this year and just fades gradually after that for another few years.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

I agree. Jeter can’t be compared to Wagner, but he doesn’t have to be Wagner to be among the best shortstops of all time. And I’m hoping he doesn’t just stick around, but goes out when he can still play, albeit not at the level of 1999. I really think we can do these players an injustice when we compare them (out of era) to historical figures who are both folk heroes and statistical prodigies. Then we turn from them when they inevitably fall from grace as they age.

brp

12 years ago

Reply to Thomas Court

I abhor Derek Jeter, but I have to point out that when Wagner was playing there were about 1/3 the teams so it was a lot easier to lead the league in category “X”. Any comparison involving league leaders across eras suffers from that fact.

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Andy

12 years ago

Reply to brp

Really? That’s an unusual opinion, among even Red Sox fans.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to brp

brp@21, You don’t really have to look at league leaders. Just look at Wagner’s 150 OPS+ compared to Jeter’s 118, which will probably go down over time.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Oops, I didn’t see Andy’s post below detailing OPS+ for shortstops. Sorry to steal thunder there.

Michael Sullivan

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

In Wagner’s time, the league was not the kind of massively professional place it is now. We’ve all heard the stories of guys getting found mashing in some rec league and going straight to the majors. Given that OPS+ and WAR etc. compare to a baseline at the time, and given that the baseline quality of the game is so much higher today than it was then, I don’t think it’s crazy to think Jeter might actually be better than Wagner relative to his peers (the argument is that half the guys in the majors in 1900 would be in… Read more »

Jason Z

12 years ago

For Jeter to surpass 3500 hits he would need to play
beyond 2013 when his contract expires.

I do believe he will pass Wagner prior to the end of 2013.

On a recent Yankee game I heard the broadcaster state
that scouts are saying Jeter is getting down to first
base faster this year than last.

If this is indeed true, maybe Jeter has more left at
a higher level than most suspect.

Jason Z

12 years ago

It is also worth noting that Jeter’s second homer
of the season this past weekend was to the opposite
field.

The bottom line is that the eyes confirm what the
statistics show, the post 3,000 hit version of Jeter
continues this season.

If Jeter continues to perform offensively at a high
level do the Yankees extend him prior to the start of
next season? And for how long and how much?

Thomas Court

12 years ago

It’s been refreshing to see Jeter hitting the ball well this season. When he was injured on Opening Day in 2003, I remarked to my father that he probably just missed whatever chance he had at breaking Pete Rose’s all-time hit mark. This probably seems like a silly conversation to have had, but I had (jokingly?) stated that Jeter would be the first Yankee with 3,000 hits ever since he won Rookie of the Year. As crazy as my expectations were for him, my father’s have always been higher. He certainly is in a position to really push his aggregate… Read more »

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Andy

12 years ago

The idea that Jeter is #1 or close to the #1 offensive shortstop of all time is absolutely preposterous. Here are the best OPS+ figures among guys to play at least 1000 games at SS: Rk Player OPS+ 1 Honus Wagner 150 2 Alex Rodriguez 144 3 Arky Vaughan 136 4 Nomar Garciaparra 124 5 Ernie Banks 122 6 George Davis 121 7 Lou Boudreau 120 8 Vern Stephens 119 9 Joe Cronin 119 10 Derek Jeter 118 11 Barry Larkin 116 12 Robin Yount 115 13 Ed McKean 114 14 Jim Fregosi 113 15 Luke Appling 113 16 Cal… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Two more seasons of A-Rod playing third base, and he will be off the SS list. He’s less than 200 games away from having more games at 3B than SS and has averaged ~110 games at third the last three seasons.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Agree with Andy, that to consider Jeter close to Honus Wagner in offensive production is just ridiculous. Jeter has been a very good-to-excellent offensive force in his career, but usually not one of the elite best. Wagner, however, was _unquestionably_ the very best hitter in the NL the first two decades of the twentieth century. If you look at Adjusted Batting Runs (which removes the defensive adjustment of Offensive WAR), Wagner is amongst the leaders every year from 1899-1912. Jeter makes the Top-10, only twice, in 1999 and 2006. The only way that Jeter is better than Wagner offensively is… Read more »

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Doug

12 years ago

For those interested, here is an earlier post on the topic of comparing Jeter and Wagner.

http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/03/can-derek-catch-honus/

T-Dub

12 years ago

Greetings. I have been really enjoying HHS since this site was launched. I even had the good fortune of being the one to add it to Stumble Upon, because more people should be reading the entertaining, thoughtful and intelligent discourse that takes place here. I love stats and I always have. I remember the days with my old baseball encyclopedia, writing out career stats for obscure players and calculating what were at the time fringe stats (mostly Bill James type stuff – Runs Created comes to mind, but I really enjoyed discovering HOF probability and HOF predictors as well). There… Read more »

Neil L.

12 years ago

Reply to T-Dub

Don’t be a stranger here in HHS, T-dub. Comment frequently. You’ll find it’s a supportive and tolerant community. And you’ll learn a lot if my experience is any indication.

Welcome aboard!

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