Unusual recipe for 200 wins

If a pitcher never gets more than 17 wins in a season and retires at age 34, what are his chances of winning 200?

Since 1945, eleven pitchers have reached 200 wins by their age-33 season. Ten of them had a 20-win season by the time they won #200, and nine did it more than once, totaling forty-four 20-win seasons. The 11th guy just plugged away:

Rk	Player	W	From	To	Age	G	GS	CG	SHO	GF	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+
1	Robin Roberts	233	1948	1960	21-33	503	454	270	35	40	189	.552	3622.1	3507	1506	1361	695	1817	3.38	116
2	Jim Palmer	225	1965	1979	19-33	447	420	194	51	11	122	.648	3275.1	2691	1081	968	1092	1927	2.66	132
3	Catfish Hunter	224	1965	1979	19-33	500	476	181	42	6	166	.574	3449.1	2958	1380	1248	954	2012	3.26	105
4	Greg Maddux	221	1986	1999	20-33	436	432	93	28	3	126	.637	3068.2	2761	1104	959	691	2160	2.81	144
5	Juan Marichal	221	1960	1971	22-33	399	390	229	50	8	109	.670	3071.1	2674	1102	930	607	2122	2.73	129
6	Tom Seaver	219	1967	1978	22-33	423	417	188	47	5	127	.633	3239.2	2568	991	905	888	2756	2.51	140
7	Don Drysdale	209	1956	1969	19-32	518	465	167	49	34	166	.557	3432.0	3084	1292	1124	855	2486	2.95	121
8	Steve Carlton	207	1965	1978	20-33	452	434	187	38	7	149	.581	3234.1	2866	1244	1093	1113	2470	3.04	120
9	Don Sutton	205	1966	1978	21-33	469	454	146	49	10	155	.569	3290.2	2836	1241	1125	858	2378	3.08	110
10	Fergie Jenkins	203	1965	1976	22-33	450	391	212	39	31	150	.575	3111.0	2763	1217	1097	633	2344	3.17	120
11	Milt Pappas	202	1957	1972	18-33	490	436	128	42	32	152	.571	3024.0	2854	1249	1126	818	1680	3.35	111

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/29/2012.

Jim Palmer had 8 20-win seasons (counting the year of #200), with a high of 23.
Fergie Jenkins had 7, with a high of 25. (Yet Pappas was 3 months younger than Jenkins when they won their respective 200ths.)
Robin Roberts had 6, with a high of 28.
Juan Marichal had 6, with a high of 26.
Tom Seaver had 5 (counting the year he won #200), with a high of 25.
Catfish Hunter had 5, with a high of 25.
Steve Carlton had 4, with a high of 27. (Pappas was 3 months younger than Carlton….)
Don Drysdale had 2, with a high of 25.
Greg Maddux had 2, both exactly 20.
Don Sutton had one 21-win season.
Milt Pappas never won more than 17 in a season.

This column started with me looking at Raphy’s recent post and wondering which of those first eight pitchers reached 200 wins the fastest and youngest, despite never winning 20. Each took at least 17 years (Chuck Finley) and was at least 36 at the time (Frank Tanana) — except for Pappas, who made it in his 16th year, at age 33.

Milt Pappas signed with the Orioles in 1957 as a “bonus baby” out of high school. After 3 games in class A (no wins), he made his big league debut at home against the Yankees, 3 months after turning 18. He held the Bombers scoreless in 2 innings of relief, retiring Enos Slaughter, Yogi Berra, Moose Skowron, Hank Bauer, Tony Kubek and pitcher Bob Turley. (Mickey Mantle and Jerry Lumpe singled.) His very next outing came in Yankee Stadium; he allowed his first run, but retired Mantle, who was on a 29-for-52 streak that raised his BA to .384. Pappas wound up that first year with no decisions in 4 relief games, allowing just that one run in 9 innings. He would not be going back to the minors.

He made the rotation out of spring training in ’58 and earned his first win a week before his 19th birthday. Pappas made 21 starts that year and went 10-10 with a 4.06 ERA, 89 ERA+, becoming the first pitcher in 20 years with a 10-win season before turning 20. In 1959, he logged 209 IP with a record of 15-9 and a 116 ERA+, earning his 14th career win on his 20th birthday; a year later he got win #27 on his 21st birthday and went 15-11, 113 ERA+.

And that pretty much defined Milt Pappas for 14 seasons. From 1959-72, he won 12 to 17 games every year but one, with a winning record all but two years and an ERA+ from 101 to 138 all but three years. Slowly but steadily, the wins mounted: #100 came 2 days after he turned 26, and he had 153 wins before turning 30.

His two losing records were 12-13 in ’68, and 6-10 in ’69, when he had a 101 ERA+ and was the unluckiest pitcher on the division-winning Braves.

Some of that luck was made up in 1972, when Pappas won 17 in just 28 starts and 195 IP. He did have a 138 ERA+, but only 80 strikeouts; he was the first SP in a decade with 16+ wins and less than 90 Ks. However, the luck did not extend as far as getting a gift strike call on Sept. 2, 1972, when Pappas retired the first 26 Padres and had a 2-2 count on pinch-hitter Larry Stahl (a .232 career hitter), but walked him; he then retired Garry Jestadt for the no-hitter. Jestadt was pinch-hitting for leadoff man Enzo Hernandez, who was hitting .184 and wound up at .195 for the year. (“You might not have an optimal lineup if … your best chance to avoid the no-hitter is to PH for your leadoff man with a guy who bats from the same side.”)

The ’72 no-hitter — 8 years to the day after he lost one with 2 down in the 8th on a single by Zoilo Versalles — was his 6th straight win in as many starts. That streak began on August 2, ran through his 200th win on Sept. 20 (a 6-2 CG) and carried to the end of the season, making him a perfect 11-0 in the last two months. It would be 25 years before another pitcher topped that streak. (Brad Radke won 12 straight starts in 1997.)

The next year, Pappas turned 34 and went 7-12 with a 92 ERA+. Three of his last four starts were 6+ IP and 1 run or less, and he was one win shy of 100 in the NL — he would have been just the 4th to win 100+ in both leagues — but he decided to call it quits.

From his first start to his last, 74 different pitchers won 20 games in a season — but only Juan Marichal and Bob Gibson won more big-league games in that span than did Milt Pappas.

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12 years ago

Pappas also hit 20 HR in his career – quite impressive. In 1962, 4 of his 6 hits for the season were HR’s. Yet he only batted .123 for his career.

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to BK

Most Homers By a Pitcher in the Expansion Era (1961-2011):
1. Earl Wilson 33
2. Bob Gibson 24
3. Carlos Zambrano 23
4. Milt Pappas 18
T5. Mike Hampton and Jim Kaat 16

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to BK

Has anyone else ever hit four homers in a season while batting less than .087?

20 career homers with an ops+ of -3.
K’d in 43% of PA.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Voomo,

Your surmise is correct.

Clem Labine and Mickey Tettleton(!) had 3 HR with BA under .100. Labine got his 3 HR in only 31 AB, compared to 69 when Pappas had his 4 HR.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

I like the fact that Pappas only had 7 times on base that year — a walk, 2 singles, a double and 4 HRs. No one else has ever hit 4+ HRs with HR>TOB.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Not more HR than other TOB, but Zambrano had 6 HR and an equal number of other TOB in 2006.

Looking at the list HR < 2 * Hits, I see Keith McDonald with his much remarked on 3 hits aand 3 HR in 2000. Much remarked on because they were also the only hits of his career. But, for a single season feat, Jorge Sosa (2006), Clem Labine (1955) and Ed Sanicki (1949) have also done the same thing.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Above should have read “Looking at the list Hits < 2 * HR".

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Pappas was the first pitcher in the live-ball era to hit 2 HRs and pitch a shutout (Aug. 27, 1961). He connected twice off Pedro Ramos, while blanking the Twins on 2 hits with 11 Ks in a 3-0 win. The feat has been matched 3 times since then. The next to do it was Ramos himself, against the Orioles, on May 30, 1962. Ramos hit a solo shot and a granny, both off Chuck Estrada. The others both came in 1971 — Rick Wise’s no-hitter against the Reds, and Sonny Siebert’s 3-hitter against Baltimore. Pappas had the highest Game… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

John – Pappas talks about the 2-HR shut out in the second link under comment #10. Basically Pappas and Ramos agreed before the game to throw each other only fastballs. After the first homerun, Ramos reneged on the agreement and started throwing curves. Unfortunately, he hung one and Pappas hit it out for his second home run of the game.

Doug

12 years ago

Pappas also formed one half of the youngest battery ever. On Sep 11, 1957, he and catcher Frank Zupo hooked up against the As. Their combined age: 36 years, 136 days.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL195709111.shtml

This same game also featured Zupo catching Dizzy Trout in Trout`s final career appearance (he faced 4 batters and gave up 2 singles, a double and a triple). This was one of only a handful of times that a teenage catcher has caught a forty-something pitcher.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Wow — Zupo was only 17, and he got his first MLB hit in that very game.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Actually, it was his first MLB run in that game. Zupo’s first hit came a month earlier against Bob Grim and the Yankees.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Looking at the Yankees game when Zupo had his first hit, he caught another 18 year-old that day, Jerry Walker. The combined age of that battery was 36 years, 162 days, the youngest ever until broken by the Pappas-Zupo tandem exactly one month later.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL195708110.shtml

Wine Curmudgeon

12 years ago

To this day, Pappas insists that he did strike out Stahl, and that the ump blew the call. It’s just another bit of Cubs lore we have to live with.

12 years ago

Wow, an entire post on Milt Pappas and no mention of him being traded for Frank Robinson! Anyway, I was just looking at the trade. It wasn’t straight up…the Orioles included Dick Simpson and Jack Baldschun. Interestingly, neither Simpson nor Baldschun played a single game for the Orioles organization. Simpson was acquired from the Angles on Dec. 2, 1965 and a week later included in the Robinson trade. Baldschun spent even less time with the Orioles organization. He was acquired from the Phillies on December 6th.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

“an entire post on Milt Pappas and no mention of him being traded for Frank Robinson!”

Wait — you say the Reds traded Robinson for Pappas? What on earth were they thinking?!? That’s the worst trade in the history of commerce!!! 🙂

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

“…but Frank Robinson was an “old” 30!!”* Plus, he had several off-field incidents which reflected poorly on the Reds organization, he was the Reds highest-paid player, and they really needed more pitching. I’m sure it made sense to the Reds at the time. However… WAR confirms the lopsidedness of the trade: -Robinson: 33.4 WAR over 6 years -Pappas: 6.2 WAR over 2 1/2 years To do a complete analysis you’d also need to include the players these two were later traded for. Pappas (+ others) got Clay Carroll, Tony Cloninger and Woody Woodward from the Braves in mid-1968. Robinson (+… Read more »

Luis Gomez

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Sergio “Kaliman” Robles. Greatest catcher in Mexican League history.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Luis Gomez

And a lot of good that did the Orioles: 10 games/ 21 PA/2 hits/ no runs or RBI over two years…

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Here’s an analysis trying to make the case that it wasn’t a completely illogical trade. Sets the scene well, but I’m not buying it. Forget sabernumbers, just going by the old school numbers, The Judge had 1009 ribbys in his 20’s!

http://blog.deanscards.com/2010/08/frank-robinson-for-milt-pappas-trade.html

It’s not mentioned directly in that article, but I’ve read that his getting busted with a concealed pistol was a big part of the heave-ho from Cincy. His being an “old 30” was a polite way of saying “too black.”

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

This article makes a clearer case for it, taking the long view of how it gave the Reds flexibility, leading to their rise to power five years later. (I’m still not buying it):

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/cin/hof/article.jsp?ymd=20101206&content_id=16263880&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

______________________________________

Oh, and someone should spell out Pappas’ full name:

Miltiades Stergios Papastergios

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

I agree with your conclusion. However, even without reading the articles, it’s easy enough to make a case with old-school numbers that Robinson was in decline, and that the trade made sense for the Reds from various angles. Robinson’s yearly averages: Age 20-26: .309 BA, 34 HRs, 33 doubles, 101 RBI, 107 Runs. Age 27-29: .289 BA, 28 HRs, 30 doubles, 100 RBI, 97 Runs. Also, in ’65 he had 100 Ks for the first time ever. He had averaged 66 Ks over the previous 5 years. Meanwhile, Pappas looked to be on the rise. 1965 was his 6th qualifying… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

I must admit that was one of several articles I used for my research in #13 above. I’m not buying it, athough if the Redlegs had traded Pinson instead of Robinson, it would’ve been much more of an even deal. Pinson was a decent player from 1966-1968, but not the star he was from 1959-1965.

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Another thing DeWitt may have overlooked was that the NL was just a better league than the AL at that time. So Robinson was going to see weaker competition than he was used to, and Pappas would have it tougher. I was just looking at the box score for the ’65 All-Star Game, which Pappas started. We all know how loaded the NL was in those days, but looking at an All-Star lineup really brings it home. In the first inning, Pappas faced Willie Mays (HR), Hank Aaron, Willie Stargell (single), Dick Allen, Joe Torre (HR), Ernie Banks, Pete Rose… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence,
What were the other off-the-field incidents you are referring to? I have never read about the why part of this trade before.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

#15/ Voomo Zanzibar covered it above. For more detail, here’s an excerpt from the 6/17/63 issue of SI: “… a few weeks before spring training in 1961, Robinson was arrested in Cincinnati for carrying a concealed weapon, charged with pulling a gun during an argument with a short-order cook in a sandwich shop. He had the gun, he explained, because he often carried large sums of “walking-around money,” and the area in which he usually parked his car was extremely dark. Robinson pleaded guilty and was let off with nothing more than a $250 fine.” There may have been another… Read more »

Tmckelv

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Regarding the trade: Does anyone think that the Robinson trade has hurt Pappas’ overall perception? I feel that players involved in PERCEIVED “bad” trades, are thought of as lesser players than they actually were. Another example is Jim Fregosi.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Tmckelv

From the School Of Decieving Stats:
Pappas’ career W-L record is almost the same as Don Drysdales’: 209-164 versus 209-166. Almost all of Drysdales’ other stats are clearly better, though: 121 ERA+ vs 110 ERA+, to start. His WAR is about 20 higher than Pappas.

As for your question, I think it hurt Pappas a little, Fregosi not really. Fregosi was already respected before the trade: MVP votes in 8 years, 6 AS games, a GG. His career was already going into decline before the trade to the Mets.

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence- I’m not as certain that Fergosi’s image didn’t maybe take at least a bit of a hit after the trade. Even through at the time of his retirement he was probably one of the 10 best shortstops of all time (or at least very close to it) he received virtually no support for the HOF at the time of his retirement. I’m sure that misconceptions about playing in the second dead ball era were probably a larger factor but I’m guessing that if you have taken a poll in 1970 asking who the best American League shortstop was in… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Hartvig, I think it’s more his decline after 1970 at the shockingly young age of 28. Up to then he was building up decent HOF credentials. It’s a pretty clear dividing point – if you look at his Leaderboards, he’s all over the place till 1970, then has exactly one mention after (1971, errors). He never played 100 games or had 300 AB after age 30, so even though he played till 36, he didn’t quite have the career totals. I think it’s more the career length (and most of his best years being in the 2nd deadball era) than… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Fregosi’s productive years were just ending when I started following the game, so I find it too difficult to determine what his reputation was during his prime and what factors led to his current level of underappreciation. On the one hand, outside of a saber-friendly forum, I don’t recall hearing anything about Fregosi’s defense that would correspond to his dWAR ratings for 1964-70. On the other hand, he did win a Gold Glove in 1967. On the one hand, even though his WAR is easily the best of any SS in the ’60s (and ranks 8th among all players for… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

From age 21-28, Fregosi totaled 43.0 bWAR (and 49.1 fWAR, though I’ll stick with bWAR the rest of the way). The 43.0 bWAR ranked 39th in modern history (1893-) for that age range. There are 40 HOF-eligible players who had at least 40 bWAR from age 21-28. Only 3 haven’t made the HOF: Barry Bonds, Cesar Cedeno, and Jim Fregosi. Out of 43 now retired players who had 40+ WAR from 21-28, only 3 collected less than 11.7 WAR over the rest of their careers: Cesar Cedeno had 8.1, Fregosi 2.6, and John McGraw 1.5 (he only played 79 games… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

On the subject of Fregosi-for-Ryan: In 1970, Fregosi ranked #3 in bWAR among all MLB players, including pitchers, with 7.7 bWAR. That capped an 8-year run of 4.1, 8.1, 4.5, 5.2, 5.0, 3.2, 5.2 and 7.7 WAR — all good to excellent years. In ’71 he had his first bad year, suffering some nagging injuries and one month-long absence. He was 29. If you looked him at that snapshot moment in time, would you see a player in decline, or a once-in-a-generation SS having a hiccup? Nolan Ryan at that moment was 24 years old with 510 MLB innings and… Read more »

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

And I agree that his early, rapid decline was probably the biggest factor in his lack of HOF support. And I also agree that the Brock & Robinson trades are bigger deals in my memory as well- although it’s also true that I followed baseball much more closely in the ’60’s than I did in the ’70’s. Truth is, I guess, that if the trade did or did not effect peoples perception of him it was at most a minor contributing factor as to why he is still underrated to this day. When I was writing this I did a… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Ryan’s cohort: Through age 24, Nolan Ryan had 510 IP and a 98 ERA+. I looked at all SPs thru age 24 with 300 to 700 IP and ERA+ from 93-103. I chose the period 1920-85 — i.e., starting with the live-ball era, and ending in time for any such pitchers to have finished their career and become HOF-eligible. There were 49 pitchers who met the criteria. Ryan is the only one to: – make the HOF; – win more than 185 games in his career (Mike Torrez won 185); or – amass more than 47.1 bWAR in his career… Read more »

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Fregosi segued from player to manager in the same year – with different teams.

And it appears that it happened on the same day.
He played his last game on May 31st, drawing a walk in his final PA in Philly….

Dave Garcia managed the first 45 games for the Angels…

The Angels’ 46th game was on May 31st.
They lost 17-2.
Was Fegosi holding the scorecard?

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Ryan had kind of a rough age 24 season, his first year as a mostly regular rotation starter (26 starts that year, previous high 19). Going with a comp group through age 23 (258-458 IP, 99-109 ERA+), there are a couple of HOFers, namely Marichal and Gossage.

48 pitchers in group. Most wins after Ryan and Marichal – Billy Pierce 211, Claude Osteen 196, Mike Torrez 185. Median career wins of 61. Median career ERA+ of 100. Other notables in group: Guy Bush, Johnny Podres, Mark Gubicza, Johnny Antonelli, Bruce Kison.

12 years ago

Actually it sounds like Pappas thinks Froemming should have just given it to him since he was so close. Pappas was actually ahead 1-2 in the count but threw three straight balls. You can see live video footage of the last three outs here. The first out of the 9th inning is interesting as one of the outfielders slips and falls and Billy Williams comes over to make the catch. Unfortunately, the camera angle of the last 3 balls is horrible so there’s no way to tell if the ump got the calls right or not. http://mediaburn.org/Video-Preview.128.0.html?uid=967 Here’s video footage… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

My comment was obviously a response to Wine Curmudgeon. Anyway, here’s a great article on the missed perfect game with input from Pappas, Froemming, Stahl and Hundley (the catcher).

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=3019597

And here’s a great interview with Pappas re: his life in baseball. The story about how he helped Maris get to 61 home runs is particularly interesting. The Ted Williams anecdote is also priceless.

http://www.psacard.com/articles/article_view.chtml?artid=3819

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Thanks for those links, Ed. After I first read about Pappas’s outspoken resentment over Froemming not donating that 3rd strike, I checked out his splits by ump (maybe the first time I’ve ever used that feature). Froemming only called 2 other games of his (as far as B-R knows), one the year before and one the year after. Pappas had very good control. The year after the no-hitter, he walked 3 or more in just 5 of his 29 starts, with two 5-walk games; one of those was the only game of his that Froemming called after their run-in. Not… Read more »

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

JA, I love this post! Normally, the only way we get a post so focused on one player is when it’s of the HOF variety, or maybe when someone retires. I’m not saying I would like a post like this every day, but it’s a really cool change of pace. Kudos to you for a great idea, and stellar execution.

Also, any post mentioning Brad Radke is bound to make me happy, so this post pretty much has it all.

T-Bone

12 years ago

Pappas also had this strange happening after Baseball.

http://articles.latimes.com/1987-08-09/sports/sp-438_1_milt-pappas

Howard

12 years ago

Reply to T-Bone

Did I read that right? His “current fiance” moved in with him nine months after his wife disappeared? That is mighty fishy to me.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Pappas and the HOF – I vaguely recall a story that in late 1978, he was left off the 1979 HOF ballot. Pappas protested that he should be listed on the ballot. He got five votes, more than 21 of the 54 players listed on the 1979 ballot. Does this sound familiar to anyone?

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

I does to me as well. Don’t remember any details or anything however.

Howard

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Yes. In fact at the time he compared his own career numbers to those of Don Drysdale the similarity of which another poster mentioned earlier.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Howard

Howard,

It was ME! – see my post above/#36.

Howard

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Sorry Lawrence. I have to admit that I was too lazy to scroll back up to your comment : )

JDV

12 years ago

I really enjoyed this post as well…great information and great links. Although I’m a life-long Oriole fan, my first memory of Pappas was his 1969 Topps card with the Braves, and then mostly as a Cub. Thanks to all.

Doug

12 years ago

John remarked that Pappas had won games on both his 20th and 21st birthdays.

The most times a pitcher has won a game on his birthday? 5 times by Bobo Newsom. Jerry Reuss and Tim Wakefield each did it 4 times.

Tmckelv

12 years ago

” (“You might not have an optimal lineup if … your best chance to avoid the no-hitter is to PH for your leadoff man with a guy who bats from the same side.”) ”

And especially when that pinch hitter is Gary Jestadt!!!!

For some reason, I love the early 1970’s San Diego Padres teams. Nate Colbert, Clarence Gaston, Clay Kirby, etc. I have always liked Enzo Hernandez. When I was a kid, I used to look at the back of his baseball cards and wonder why he had so many ABs for someone that was not good.

Library Dave

12 years ago

Sorry to go off topic: can someone write a separate post that shows just how ridiculous Yadier Molina’s new contract is?

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Library Dave

That was my initial reaction, but now I’m not sure. The extension covers his age 30-34 seasons, which seems pretty old for a catcher. But there have been 18 catchers who amassed at least 15 bWAR in that span, led by Posada’s 22.8. And 16 have caught least 600 games in that span.

Or maybe it’s just that the Mets fan in me is still traumatized from his game-winning HR in the 2006 NLCS….

(FWIW, here’s David Schoenfield’s take.)

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Library Dave

I don’t think it’s a ridiculous contract. He’s far and away the best defensive catcher in baseball, and Fangraphs just added a wild pitch-blocking WAR component to their catcher defensive WAR, based on the really fantastic research done by Bojan Koprivica. Here’s the link to this groundbreaking article on The Hardball Times: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/another-one-bites-the-dust/ To the surprise of no one, Yadier will (or now has) benefited the most from this new metric. Surprisingly, since 2008, Brian McCann finished second behind Molina in the pitch-blocking category, giving a much-needed positive boost to his defensive abilities. Word is McCann also scored very high… Read more »

12 years ago

Ultimately I suppose it depends on how well he hits. His OPS+ and oWAR last year were both better than anything he’s done previously.

Bstar – In the chart labeled, “Best 15 Catchers Blocking Pitches, 2008-2011”, Molina is 2nd behind Quintero (McCann finished fourth). Were you looking at something else when you said McCann was 2nd behind Molina?

bstar

12 years ago

I was looking at the link provided by Jeff Appelmann in his 2/29 article at Fangraphs that lists the catchers who’ve benefited the most from this new metric. It lists Molina first and McCann second. They worked with the author of the article in implementing this stat, so I’m surprised there is a discrepancy here. Are your numbers from the actual article by Koprivica? Anyway, here’s the link:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2011&month=0&season1=2008&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&players=0&sort=15,d

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Ed, you were looking at a table that was a rate stat, based on 120 games/year. That’s why Wieters and Quintero were ahead of McCann. My table from Fangraphs lists cumulative effect from 2008 and on, so that’s why Molina and McCann were first and second, because they’ve caught way more games than Wieters or Quintero.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Gotcha. Yes, I was looking at the Hardball Times link.

e pluribus munu

12 years ago

I’m with Dr. Doom – this is a very neat post. Having followed Pappas since his start, I remember being very dismayed as he approached 200 wins. Post-1900 200-game winners were still a relatively select group of almost uniformly famous work horse pitchers (19th century statistics were still generally ignored, despite MacMillan having been out a few years), and Pappas seemed to diminish its status. How had this happened? Nothing about him stood out except his role in the Robinson trade. After all, he only achieved even a 17-win season at the tail end of his career. I found it… Read more »

Howard

12 years ago

In defense (sort of) of the Pappas/Robinson trade: over the first half of the 1965 season Pappas was the best pitcher in the American League, even better than Sam McDowell who had a fantastic season. Near the end of July Pappas was 10-3 with an ERA below 1.70. Of course he finished poorly but great first halves tend to stick out in people’s minds and when a young pitcher does it it gives hope that he can do it for a whole season. A case in point is Michael Pineda. He had an ERA over 5.00 in the second half… Read more »

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Reply to Howard

… perhaps saying more about the Yankee rotation than about Pineda. 🙂

birtelcom

12 years ago

Pappas was the all-time strikeout king for the Browns/Orioles franchise when he was traded for Robinson. Jack Powell (884 Ks for the Browns) had been the franchise leader in strikeouts since all the way back in 1909, until Pappas passed him in 1965 (July 9, 1965 if I have it figured correctly). Dave McNally passed him in 1970, but Pappas is still 6th on the franchise career strikeout list. Pappas had 944 Ks after 1965, his age 26 season. As of 1965, only 5 other American League pitchers had reached that many Ks by their age 26 season: Walter Johnson,… Read more »

Author

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Wow, that’s a real Urban Shocker, birtelcom! Nice find. The ’64 Orioles had 3 of the franchise’s top 9 in Ks to that point — Pappas (817), Steve Barber (649) and Chuck Estrada (517). I hadn’t quite realized this before, but to this day there have only been 7 seasons of 200 Ks by a Browns/O’s pitcher, 3 of them by Mussina. Of all the 20-game winners they had in the ’60s-’80s, only McNally ever reached 200 (202 in ’68). Palmer’s high was 199. Cueller had 203 with Houston in ’67, but his Oriole high was 190. Dobson, Torrez, Garland,… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Scott McGregor also won 20 games in that period and also failed to reach 200 Ks. In fact, he had 7 seasons of 30+ starts with the O’s and only topped 100 K’s once.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

200 K Seasons by Franchise, Since 1901

AL
1. Senators/Twins 27
2. Americans/Red Sox 25
3. Tigers, Indians 22
5. Angels 20
6. Mariners 16
7. Highlanders/Yankees 15
8. White Sox 14
9. Athletics 13
10. Browns/Orioles, Blue Jays, Senators/Rangers 7
13. Royals 4
14. Devil Rays/Rays 3
15. Brewers 2

NL
1. Superbas/Robins/Dodgers 43
2. Giants 26
3. Phillies 24
4. Colt .45s/Astros, Mets 23
6. Orphans/Cubs 17
7. Cardinals 16
8. Reds 15
9. Beaneaters/Braves 13
10. Diamondbacks 9
11. Expos/Nationals 8
12. Brewers 6
13. Marlins, Padres, Pirates 5
16. Rockies 2

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

That Braves number seems really low; then I checked and realized Warren Spahn, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux combined had only one 200 K season (Maddux in 1998). There were lots of near misses by Maddux; he had seasons of 199, 198, and 197 K also. Smoltz had five in his career, including near misses of 197 and 193. Must have been a lot of Beaneaters on the list.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

It was Smoltz with 5, Niekro with 3, and one each for Maddux, Vazquez, Millwood, Cloninger and Vic Willis.

Warren Spahn’s best was 191 in 1950, his second of 4 straight league-leading seasons.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Tommy Hanson(9.8 K/9) and Brandon Beachy(10.7 K/9) look like good candidates to join this list at some point, although for some reason a lot of people are predicting a regression for Beachy in K rate. The big question is: can any of the young Braves starters(Hanson, Beachy, JJurj, or Mike Minor) pitch 200+ innings this year? Fredi Gonzalez probably using the big 3 out of the bullpen less this year might help that, if those starters can manage to stay healthy.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Edit: those K rates for Hanson and Beachy were from 2011 only and represent career highs for both.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

The (>1977)Mariners have more 200k seasons than 111 years of Yankees !

And four of those 15 were since 2001.
______________

(And A.J. Burnett now has three of the top four wild pitch seasons in NYY history)

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

And the post-1962 Astros and Mets both have significantly more than the Cubs, Cardinals, Red and Braves.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Make that significantly more for the Astros and Mets than the Cubs, Cardinals, Reds, Braves and, especially, the Pirates.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Not that surprising about the Astros considering they’ve had Ryan, J.R. Richard, and Mike Scott pitching for them. I’d wager Roger Clemens, Larry Dierker, Roy Oswalt, and maybe even Joe Niekro might have a few also.

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Dierker, Clemens, and Oswalt had one each. Niekro’s highest was 152. Now if only they had the foresight to start Schilling instead of trying to use him as their closer.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Or the money to re-sign the Big Unit when he came over mid-season in ’98. Randy got over halfway to 200 K in only 11 starts with Houston (116).

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

1967 Twins (Boswell, Chance, Kaat) and 1969 Astros (Dierker, Griffin, Wilson) are only teams having 3 pitchers with 200+ Ks.

Teams have had 2 pitchers with 200+ Ks 48 times, led by the Doddgers with 8 times, including 6 straight seasons (1961-66) with Koufax every year and Drysdale in 1962-65. Mets, Angels and Giants had done this 4 times, and Astros, Tigers and Phillies have done it thrice.

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

It’s funny to me that the Brewers have 3 times as many since moving to the NL as they had in twice as long in the AL. That’s pretty shocking when you consider it, especially since they had two Cy Young winners in the AL, none in the NL. It’s a different game, that’s for sure.

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Make that Astros, Tigers, Phillies and Cubs with 3 seasons having 2 pitchers with 200+ Ks.