Jimmy Rollins: out machine @CrashburnAlley @JimmyRollins11

JRoll, in all likelihood making an out / Icon SMI

Jimmy Rollins makes a ton of outs.

For starters, here are the NL leaders for outs over the last 11 seasons:

Player	Out	Year ▴	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
Jimmy Rollins	489	2001	PHI	NL	158	720	656	97	.274	.323	.419	.743	*6
Jimmy Rollins	508	2002	PHI	NL	154	705	637	82	.245	.306	.380	.686	*6/4
Juan Pierre	493	2003	FLA	NL	162	747	668	100	.305	.361	.373	.734	*8
Scott Podsednik	504	2004	MIL	NL	154	713	640	85	.244	.313	.364	.677	*8
Jose Reyes	528	2005	NYM	NL	161	733	696	99	.273	.300	.386	.687	*6
Juan Pierre	521	2006	CHC	NL	162	750	699	87	.292	.330	.388	.717	*8
Jimmy Rollins	521	2007	PHI	NL	162	778	716	139	.296	.344	.531	.875	*6
Jose Reyes	508	2008	NYM	NL	159	763	688	113	.297	.358	.475	.833	*6
Jimmy Rollins	519	2009	PHI	NL	155	725	672	100	.250	.296	.423	.719	*6
Rickie Weeks	485	2010	MIL	NL	160	754	651	112	.269	.366	.464	.830	*4/D
Starlin Castro	496	2011	CHC	NL	158	715	674	91	.307	.341	.432	.773	*6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/23/2012.

Rollins has led in 4 of those 11 years. To be fair, he also led in AB all of those years so he had the most opportunity to make outs. (Although, to play devil’s advocate, if he had walked more, he wouldn’t have had so many ABs…)

But this isn’t the whole story–click through for more.

Since 2001, here are the players with at least 5000 PA whose out total was at least 65% of his AB total:

Rk		Out	AB	PA	G	R	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS ▾	Pos	Tm
1	Albert Pujols	4506	6312	7433	1705	1291	445	1329	975	704	.328	.420	.617	1.037	*375/9D64	STL
2	Lance Berkman	4102	5602	6777	1589	1012	332	1102	1064	1120	.298	.413	.551	.963	3798/D	HOU-STL
3	Todd Helton	3924	5544	6678	1548	986	240	940	1024	841	.319	.424	.534	.958	*3/D	COL
4	Chipper Jones	3728	5128	6094	1452	901	265	926	901	831	.305	.406	.531	.937	*57/D6	ATL
5	Adam Dunn	3825	4975	6065	1448	865	354	880	990	1632	.250	.381	.521	.902	*739/D	CIN-TOT-WSN
6	Derrek Lee	4044	5425	6241	1466	880	268	869	713	1202	.291	.376	.514	.890	*3/D	FLA-CHC-TOT-PIT
7	Brian Giles	3419	4590	5488	1251	751	174	683	819	547	.286	.395	.482	.877	*978	PIT-TOT-SDP
8	Aramis Ramirez	4250	5732	6345	1520	829	303	1056	467	841	.289	.347	.513	.860	*5/D	PIT-TOT-CHC
9	Pat Burrell	3529	4599	5474	1383	656	258	820	802	1278	.256	.367	.485	.852	*7/D	PHI-SFG
10	Jimmy Rollins	5129	6805	7482	1622	1075	170	720	566	849	.272	.329	.433	.762	*6/4D	PHI
11	Rafael Furcal	4109	5510	6127	1353	903	104	499	524	766	.281	.344	.410	.754	*6/4	ATL-LAD-TOT
12	Juan Pierre	3948	5333	5847	1382	778	13	367	327	322	.300	.347	.374	.722	*87/D	COL-FLA-CHC-LAD

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/23/2012.

There’s our man, Rollins, with the worst OPS out of the group save two players who even worse. Maybe the Phillies should go out and sign Juan Pierre too….OH WAIT–THEY ALREADY DID!

Seriously, it’s OK for players to have outs that are 75% of their AB title when they get on base like Chipper or Helton, or slug like Pujols or Berkman.

But Rollins, who has the lowest OBP of this group yet inexplicably bats leadoff…all I can say is “man, oh man…”

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David

12 years ago

“struck out in at least 75% of them”? I think you meant got/made outs.

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Andy

12 years ago

Reply to David

Oops…thanks.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

I can see Pierre leading off and JRoll batting second Andy.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to Timmy Pea

We are talking about a potent 1,2 punch!

bstar

12 years ago

I think you might be painting a particularly dim view of Rollins. Looking at the second list, we have one possible/probable Inner Circle Hall of Famer(Pujols), one probable(Chipper), and two possibles(Helton, Berkman). There’s no shame in finishing 11th out of 12 on that list. And is it really a big surprise that the three leadoff hitters in the group would naturally finish in the bottom three of OPS? It would kind of be really surprising if they did not. You also didn’t mention the SB numbers that Pierre and Rollins have compiled over the years. Rollins SB% is 20th best… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Sorry I must have hit the “submit” button. To continue, Rollins also has an inordinate amount of extra-base hits for a leadoff hitter, with 170 HR, almost 400 doubles, and 100 triples. Maybe you’re right, maybe Shane Victorino should be leading off, but considering the Phillies have raised their win total for six straight years, I don’t think Rollins’ out total has necessarily manifested itself as a problem.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

You’re missing the point I think. Rollins is a very different type of player from the other guys on this list. He, Furcal, and Pierre are all relatively unproductive. The fact that they’re on with those other types of hitters is not a compliment to them.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

No, I understand that, Andy. I just don’t think it’s fair to compare the OPS of leadoff hitters to sluggers. Wouldn’t WAR be better? FWIW, Rollins jumps to fifth on that list.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Actually, making a career outs-made list IS quite the compliment. 21 of the 25 players on the all-time outs list are Hall of Famers, and three of the other four are Pete Rose, Craig Biggio, and Rafael Palmeiro.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

bstar, I’m not jumping in to further knock Rollins. But from the fact that the career outs leaders is mostly HOFers, it does not follow that being on a 5- or 10-year list of outs leaders means you’re a great hitter. Clearly, the most important single measure for a a leadoff hitter is his OBP, and Rollins is at .329 for his career. That’s 11 points below the league OBP over the same span. So he needs to do a lot of other things well to justify the PAs; as you noted, speed and power helps bridge the gap. In… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

John, My response to this wasn’t about who should be leading off for Philadelphia in 2012; in fact, I mentioned that perhaps Victorino should be the man. To answer your thought about what Manuel’s plans are, I’d be pretty surprised if Victorino opened the season batting first. I’m not sure where you got the idea that Rollins/Victorino have been splitting the 1 spot in 2010-11. You might be looking at Victorino’s starts leading off in 2010 when Rollins was on the shelf for almost half the season(he only played 88 games). But, when he’s been in the lineup, Rollins has… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

bstar @15 – I was just replying on two issues that you had touched on in separate comments. I’m sorry if I misunderstood your point, or if I implied an emphasis in your comments that wasn’t there. By noting that Rollins and Victorino had split the leadoff role over the last 2 years, I wasn’t suggesting that Manuel had already started choosing to take that role away from Rollins. I was only showing that Victorino had spent significant time in that role in the last 2 years, and had scored more runs per game than Rollins. So the fact that… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

We’re not talking about off-season moves to bolster the strength of the club, John. We were discussing Rollins’ spot in the lineup. Signing Roy Halladay et al has nothing to do with this. As I said, Victorino is a possible choice, but you’re going to be wasting to a degree all those extra-base hits of his compared to Rollins’. And Rollins is still a better runner, and a historically good one as far as SB% goes(20th all-time). And really, this article was about Rollins’ productivity for 2001-11. Let’s look at how he’s fared compared to the average NL leadoff hitter:… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

bstar @29 — I do agree that Rollins has had a productive career in spite of all the outs.

I don’t see why “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” would apply to batting orders, but not to trades and signings.

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Because that’s how I used it, in reference to the batting order specifically.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

There have been 10 times in history that a player had a single season SB% of %100.000

Five of them were in 1994, including Joe Carter.

I hate 1994.
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Richard Chester

12 years ago

Andy: On your second chart several of the players have an out/AB ratio of less than 75%. For example Pujols calculates to 4506/6312 = .714 = 71.4%

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Yeah it’s supposed to be 65%. Fixed it. Thanks.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

Andy, I think there’s an unstated requirement for the 2nd table — it seems to be NL-only.

12 years ago

One small error: “Since 2001, here are the players with at least 5000 AB whose out total was at least 75% of his AB total”. I think you at mean at least 5000 PAs.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Fixed.

kds

12 years ago

Your out total seems to be AB-Hits + CS + GiDP. This leaves out SH and SF. It also treats RoE as an out. (Less importantly, it probably treats K/WP and K/PB as outs and pick-offs that are not CS are not counted.) Shouldn’t you be comparing outs to PA, this hurts guys who walk a lot, something Rollins, Piere etc don’t do much of.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to kds

kds – I just noticed that the “Outs” formula used in the Play Index (which is the same as what you listed) is different from that used in their Advanced Batting numbers, which adds SH and SF. I don’t know why that is. I would assume that Andy didn’t intentionally choose to exclude SH and SF, but did so just because that’s what the P-I offers.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

Reply to kds

As JA says just above this, I used the PI formula—just grabbed its simple Outs output.

Author

Andy

12 years ago

bstar, I really appreciate the passion you are bringing to this discussion. I am not trying to say that Rollins was “unproductive”, just less productive than some may think and less productive than we’d ideally want a leadoff hitter to be. His OPS as a leadoff guy is tremendously helped by his power (i.e. the SLG part of OPS) but without checking I suspect his OBP, clearly the more important factor for a leadoff hitter, is significantly worse. The guy just does not walk enough. I think your conclusions from my second list are dangerous. That’s a rate-based list and… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Andy

What I was really trying to say what that there could have been a better way to prove Rollins has been unproductive other than putting up a list of sluggers and noting that a leadoff hitter has a lower OPS+. Isn’t that kind of obvious and proves nothing? I find that conclusion to be a little odd, also. I’m just not a big fan of outs-made stats; I think they’re a little dubious. Especially ones that show a large number of at-bats. If Rollins’ OBP is so weak, how does Shane Victorino represent a big upgrade when his OBP is… Read more »

Paul E

12 years ago

Someone in a prior post indicated Rollins was one of two players in last 110 years to score 100 runs with an OBP <.300. Everyone knocks Ryan Howard by saying his RBI totals are an "illusion of context" and, I don't disagree, but one or the other is responsible to a large degree for the other's fat totals (runs scored or RBI). Perhaps Rollins is an excellent baserunner in the mold of a Joe DiMaggio or Dick Allen (despite THEIR lack of SB's)? Rollins used to drive the ball (380 TB in MVP year is a BB record) and, obviously,… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

If they can find a suitable replacement for Rollins at leadoff, I would agree his OBP would play lower in the lineup. But switching he and Victorino would be the wrong move.

DanFlan

12 years ago

I tried to run this same query on the PI, and I was getting the same list when I left off the condition involving outs made. So this is the same as the list of the players who have more than 5000 PA in the NL in the last 11 years. Not sure what that means. Just wanted to point it out.

Paul E

12 years ago

BTW, those 500 runs Rollins scored led MLB 2004-2007.

Just wondering if Wade Boggs (high BA, high OBP, relatively slow, not frequent 300TB guy) ever scored 500 runs for a concesutive 4 year period? If not, perhaps he might have in Rollins’ context 2004-2007?

Thomas Court

12 years ago

I am no expert at predicting how many runs Boggs would have scored during his best four year period, but I would guess he would have cracked 500 runs playing in the 2004-2007 context. Boggs best four year stretch was 1985-1988. He compiled an incredible OBP of .460 over that period (leading the league all four years) but “only” scored 450 runs (only being a relative term here). My guess is that he didn’t reach 500 runs like Rollins did because of a combination of a slightly less potent lineup hitting in front of him and the differences in runs… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Thomas Court

One of the big knocks on Wade Boggs by Red Sox fans when he was at his peak in the mid/late 80s, is that despite his great OBA, all those walks and hits weren’t worth quite as much as you’d think, because Boggs was not a good baserunner. It wasn’t so much that he was unusually slow, it was more that he was rather tentative about taking extra bases, and did not have good baserunning instincts. Ironically, he was known for having one of the fastest home-to-first base times in baseball. It was the other three bases that gave him… Read more »

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

I don’t know. WAR baserunning stats show him to basically be average. Just looking at 1985, he mostly batter 2nd with guys like Rice, Buckner, Easler, and Armas coming up behind him. None of whom were anywhere near as good as their reputations.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Ed, Yes, I noted that: ” B-R “Rbaser” doesn’t clarify, evaluating him as essentially neutral those years.” I know that the “eye test” doesn’t carry much weight here, but I saw him play many times those years, and he did NOT look like a good baserunner, as he was tentative and station-to-station. In 1985 he was twelth all-time in times reached base (342), yet “only” scored 107 runs, not coming close to leading the AL. Everyone else above him on this list scored at least twenty more runs than Boggs in 1985 (including Boggs in 1988), usually a lot more.… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Lawrence, interesting insights about Boggs that I had forgotten/wasn’t aware of. I actually put a lot of stock in astute fans’ perceptions when they see a guy play a lot over a number of years.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to bstar

Thanks, bstar. I’m sure there are other Red Sox fans here who followed the team very closely in the 80s; I’d be curious what they thought, RE: evaluation of Wade Boggs. It’s interesting how the use of advanced stats has re-written some baseball history, so to speak. From 1983-86, most Red Sox fans thought of Jim Rice as the big “franchise player” on the team, and Boggs was recognized as excellent, but clearly not as good as Rice (of course Rice was much more established). Nowadays that opinion would be most certainly reversed. I’ll save you the trouble of quoting… Read more »

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Juan Pierre: 2 hits, 1 double today against the Red Sox. JP is hitting 275 this spring and is on the cusp of leading Philadelphia to the playoffs.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Does the address at the top mean that you tweeted this article to Jimmy Rollins?
Why would you tweet this to the person you are talking about?

“Hey Jimmy, you suck. Look at this saber-analysis that says you suck. Maybe try not to suck so much. Oh, and tell Ryan Howard he sucks if you get a chance. And good luck with Juan Pierre in your lineup. Ok, signing off now, I’ll let you go back to making an historic amount of outs.”

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

“Twitter is done.” 🙂

(Sorry, Andy, but here it is March 24th and the obligatory gratuitous monthly reference hadn’t been done yet.)

brp

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

J-Roll should take notice that he’s horribly overrated. Either that or he’ll count his money and stare at his WS ring and not care.

Paul E

12 years ago

Reply to brp

brp:
Good point. Why would anyone who was making $11,000,000 annually in a free market system assume he was overpaid? Like did Marcus Camby ever bother to perfect a jump shot? Why bother? If you’re good enough to be paid at the TOP of your field, why improve? The only thing Jimmy Rollins learned from this off-season was that he’s not worth Jose Reyes money

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to brp

I don’t think Rollins is overrated. I don’t think he’s underrated. He deserved that MVP and he was a big cog in a team that won over 100 games last year. He is one of my favorite players, and I’m hoping he has a great year at age 33. He appears to have not lost his speed, and like the recent great mid 30’s years of Konerko and Berkman, let’s hope Jimmy does the same.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Wow! I was looking at Rollin’s stats and came across Joe Morgan’s stats.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

I’m looking at the Fan-Elorater for Joe Morgan and they have him at 38! JM is better than Boggs, better than Yount, way better than Yount!!!!! He’s better than Mr. Cub!, and he’s better than Bagwell. JM is one of the top 18 position players to play this game.

Thomas Court

12 years ago

Reply to Timmy Pea

I agree that Morgan is one of the greatest players to ever play. He is ranked as the number one second baseman by Bill James in his Historical Baseball Abstract. He displayed a Ruthian domination over other second baseman in the 1970’s. But Joe Morgan is also a colossal horse’s ass… and if he happens to rank lower on the Fan-Elorater than he deserves then so be it. He continually criticized the book Moneyball even though he had never read it. He criticized Billy Beane for writing Moneyball when clearly the author was Michael Lewis. This of course, is all… Read more »

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to Thomas Court

That’s a great story Thomas. I understand that Joe has really pissed off baseball’s SABR guys and all. Now, Joe is in his 60’s, and maybe he’s a little crabby, but he really has a great voice and a nice command of what he wants to say. I always loved listening to him broadcast a game. Not everyone in the room can be the lovable clown like John Miller. Anyway Joe was a great player. I love Ryno, but Joe was the main cog in multiple championship seasons.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Thomas Court

The irony, in case anyone’s missed it, is that Morgan was exactly the kind of player whom saberists love and whose reputation has been enhanced by the rise of advanced stats. Didn’t Bill James call him the greatest percentage player in history?

It would be fascinating to hear Joe’s own opinion of his performance in his first stint with Houston, when he averaged a .264 BA and .399 SLG with 12 HRs per 162 games, but a 122 OPS+.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Bet Joe would tell you he was not happy with his consistancy, and probably that he hated playing on some very, very bad teams. Joe might not care about OPS+. 🙂

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Joe Morgan led the league in walks at age 21!

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Timmy Pea

Only others to do the same so young were:
– Mel Ott, 1929, age 20
– Donie Bush, 1909, age 21

Rickey Henderson has the most walks (117) in a season by anyone 21 or under, but placed 2nd in the AL in 1980 behind Willie Randolph.

Timmy Pea

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

That was the only time Willie Randolph ever topped a league hitting stat. He walked 119 times.

Michael E Sullivan

12 years ago

The biggest reason he gets so many outs is that he has so many ABs. He has so many ABs because he doesn’t walk much, and because he bats leadoff so he gets lots of PAs. It looks to me like you only have national league players on this list. Jeter qualifies also and he isn’t there. Basically, anybody with 5000 ABs is going to make your list if they don’t bat .350, because that’s 65% of ABs as outs right there. Basically there’s a huge difference between 75% and 65%. It’s the difference between batting .350 and batting .250.… Read more »

Editor

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Michael E Sullivan

Michael,

There is a follow-up post on this topic that looks at Outs per PA. The link is below.

http://www.highheatstats.com/2012/03/out-machine-redux-its-not-just-rollins-and-pierre/