Going Home … or Not

This post is about two players who had unusual run scoring accomplishments in 2011.

Curtis Granderson joined a short list of players since 1961 whose runs scored were more than half their times on base. Conversely, Casey Kotchman joined an even shorter list of players who failed to score over 80% of the time they reached base. That’s quite a range.

Here’s the first list. These are players in qualifying seasons since 1961 scoring more than half the time they reach base.

Rk	Player	Year	OPS+	R	TOBwe	Age	Tm	G	PA	H	HR	BB	SO	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Curtis Granderson	2011	138	136	252	30	NYY	156	691	153	41	85	169	25	10	.262	.364	.552	.916	*8/D
2	Carlos Beltran	2006	150	127	252	29	NYM	140	617	140	41	95	99	18	3	.275	.388	.594	.982	*8/D
3	David Dellucci	2005	126	97	192	31	TEX	128	518	109	29	76	121	5	3	.251	.367	.513	.879	*D7/89
4	Jose Valentin	2004	92	73	145	34	CHW	125	504	97	30	43	139	8	6	.216	.287	.473	.760	*6/D
5	Alfonso Soriano	2002	129	128	254	26	NYY	156	741	209	39	23	157	41	13	.300	.332	.547	.880	*4/D
6	Ivan Rodriguez	1999	125	116	231	27	TEX	144	630	199	35	24	64	25	12	.332	.356	.558	.914	*2/D
7	Alex Rodriguez	1999	134	110	213	23	SEA	129	572	143	42	56	109	21	7	.285	.357	.586	.943	*6
8	Steve Finley	1997	110	101	196	32	SDP	143	615	146	28	43	92	15	3	.261	.313	.475	.788	*8
9	Jim Edmonds	1995	129	120	219	25	CAL	141	620	162	33	51	130	1	4	.290	.352	.536	.888	*8
10	Kirk Gibson	1994	129	71	140	37	DET	98	382	91	23	42	69	4	5	.276	.358	.548	.906	*D89
11	Eric Davis	1987	155	120	232	25	CIN	129	562	139	37	84	134	50	6	.293	.399	.593	.991	*8/7
12	Rickey Henderson	1985	157	146	281	26	NYY	143	654	172	24	99	65	80	10	.314	.419	.516	.934	*8/7D
13	Tony Armas	1984	121	107	212	30	BOS	157	679	171	43	32	156	1	3	.268	.300	.531	.831	*8D/9
14	Robin Yount	1980	130	121	220	24	MIL	143	647	179	23	26	67	20	5	.293	.321	.519	.840	*6/D
15	Willie Wilson	1979	106	113	225	23	KCR	154	640	185	6	28	92	83	12	.315	.351	.420	.771	*78/9D
16	Zoilo Versalles	1965	115	126	240	25	MIN	160	728	182	19	41	122	27	5	.273	.319	.462	.781	*6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/13/2012.

Granderson has the 3rd highest rate of these 16 players, at 54%, behind only Robin Yount and Jim Edmonds. Yount’s 55% is one of only 13 seasons at that level since 1901 (the last time prior to Yount was Joe DiMaggio in 1936). Notice also the last two entries on the list where the player’s runs scored was higher than his OPS+, two of 78 times this happened in the period with OPS+ of 100 or more.

Some surprises:

Pudge Rodriguez, although this was young Pudge and he did steal 25 bases in this season
A 37 year-old Kirk Gibson, with all his battle scars
Armas, Edmonds, Delucci, Valentin, Gibson – all with single digit stolen bases
Willie Wilson making the list with only 6 home runs, while everyone else was mashing (to some degree)

Not a surprise:

Lots of high slugging percentages, indicating lots of doubles and triples to go with the healthy home run totals (always easier to score from second)
Not many walks and lots of strikeouts – limits times reaching base and only getting to first

Now for the other end of the spectrum. Same period and scoring less than 20% of the time reaching base.

Rk	Player	Year	OPS+	R	TOBwe	Age	Tm	G	PA	H	HR	BB	SO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos
1	Casey Kotchman	2011	128	44	221	28	TBR	146	563	153	10	48	66	2	.306	.378	.422	.800	*3
2	Yadier Molina	2010	84	34	177	27	STL	136	521	122	6	42	51	8	.262	.329	.342	.671	*2/3
3	Rey Ordonez	2001	67	31	156	30	NYM	149	505	114	3	34	43	3	.247	.299	.336	.635	*6
4	Jose Oquendo	1990	85	38	194	26	STL	156	553	118	1	74	46	1	.252	.350	.316	.666	*4/6
5	Jose Oquendo	1988	102	36	184	24	STL	148	518	125	7	52	40	4	.277	.350	.350	.700	4563/98721
6	Milt May	1981	118	20	138	30	SFG	97	354	98	2	34	29	1	.310	.376	.383	.759	*2
7	Mario Guerrero	1978	87	27	169	28	OAK	143	546	139	3	15	35	0	.275	.302	.345	.647	*6
8	Fred Kendall	1976	77	30	159	27	SDP	146	505	112	2	36	42	1	.246	.302	.296	.598	*2
9	Leo Cardenas	1972	70	25	168	33	CAL	150	602	123	6	35	73	1	.223	.272	.283	.555	*6
10	Ollie Brown	1971	107	36	193	27	SDP	145	542	132	9	52	74	3	.273	.346	.362	.707	*9/8
11	Tom Haller	1968	128	37	187	31	LAD	144	534	135	4	46	76	1	.285	.345	.388	.733	*2
12	Ron Hansen	1967	95	35	188	29	CHW	157	575	116	8	64	51	0	.233	.317	.321	.638	*6

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 3/13/2012.

Kotchman really stands out on this list. Only guy slugging over .400 and tied with Tom Haller for highest OPS+. Unlike Haller, though, Kotchman wasn’t playing in 1968 for the lowest run-scoring team (with 470) in the league. So, what happened?

Looking at the Rays batting order, Kotchman batted in lots of different spots, but seems to have had Upton hitting behind him most often, especially in the latter part of the season. Upton had a respectable 81 RBI and scored (albeit as a much faster runner) almost twice as often as Kotchman, even with an OBP almost 50 points lower. So, something of a mystery why Kotchman couldn’t score more often.

As for the rest of the list, not many surprises. Several catchers, no speed or power (most slugging percentages are very close to or even lower than OBPs), so not many opportunities to reach base in scoring position. Milt May had the lowest run scoring rate at 14.5%, despite having the highest BA and second highest OBP in this group.

Finally, if you’re wondering why I started at 1961, here are the numbers for each group for 1901 to 1960.

Over 50% – 100 times, only twice after 1948
Under 20% – 53 times, only once after 1943

Evidently, quite different dynamics pre-expansion and post-expansion. So, will take a look in a future post at what was happening in the old days.

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Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Amazing post, Doug. You’re a great addition to the HHS team. I knew of Granderson’s success at run-scoring, though I didn’t quite realize just how historic it was. But as for Kotchman – ouch. I had no idea. Nice job!

Mike L

12 years ago

Nice post, Doug. Looking at the chart, all I can say is that Granderson and friends must have run to the score.

MikeD

12 years ago

The other thing that leaps out here is speed. A high percentage of the guys on the first list have 20 or more SBs, with Carlon Beltran just missing one season with 18. Not a single player on the bottom list had a single season reaching double digits in SBs, and collectively only had 25. Looking at the top list, even some of the low SB guys like Gibson and Edmonds were known as good baserunners. The act of stealing a base helps, but it probably indicates the obvious, which is players with speed have a better chance of scoring… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to MikeD

I guess that Tony Armas would be the “Exception that proves the rule”. Here’s a guy with a lousy OBA, not a base stealer, not even a very good baserunner,but somehow he’s 5th in the 1984 AL in runs scored with 107.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

Also meant to add to #8 above:

He did hit 43 HR,but most sluggers of his sort don’t score a lot off runs. As I recall, Armas usually batted 4th, with Easler/ Buckner 5th and 6th (or reversed), then Gedman – decent RBI guys, but it doesn’t look like they had great RBI years in 1984. I guess it’ll remain a mystery.

Paul E

12 years ago

Kotchman scores at about a 29% clip for his career. Apparently, he doesn’t run real well with less than 20 SB in his entire professional career. Supposedly, a good glove; however, I imagine if a first baseman doesn’t hit 20 HR’s, and doesn’t run well, management tells the public that he’s a slick fielder…..

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

Kotchman has made only 9 errors in his career, in almost 4000 chances. That’s a nifty 0.998 percentage.

He’s also accumulated 25 TZR fielding runs in fewer games from start of career than any first basemen other than Sid Bream and Kevin Young.

So, it would seem he’s a good glove man.

Paul E

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Doug:
Good point. A guy who hits like Kotchman would have to do an awful lot of fielding to make up for the lack of power and, in his case, foot speed.
Incredibly, despite his obvious lack of foot speed, he was a 1st round pick — out of high school, no less. It just seems teams are always picking “toolsy” athletes early, hoping for a bigger upside.
Interesting subject and great research

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

In all fairness, baseball players are incredibly hard to project. Just looking at the year that Kotchman was drafted, he went 13th out of 44 1st round picks. His career WAR (6.0) is underwhelming but it’s actually 7th best of the 1st round picks that year. 18 never made the majors, another 8 made the majors but produced negative WAR, another 5 produced less than 1.0 WAR. This is true of any year that you look at. Most 1st round picks never have any success in the majors. And it gets worse in the later rounds. For example in the… Read more »

Jimbo

12 years ago

Eric Davis 1987 = Incredible.

Paul E

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

Reds came to Philly for a weekend in May 1987. Davis went 9 for 13 with 5 Homers and 13 RBI in three games

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

I well remember his torrid start in ’87. After seeming to come out of nowhere in ’86, Davis opened ’87 with a 23-game stretch of .411 BA, 12 HRs, 27 Runs, 23 RBI (including that Phillly series), and the Reds were in first place at 17-8 (he missed 2 games). He looked like he could be the best player of his generation. Not quite. Remember how good the ’92 Dodgers were going to be, when Davis joined his pal Darryl Strawberry? (LA had won 93 games the year before but lost the division on the final weekend, dropping 2 of… Read more »

Paul E

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

A friend was a neighbor of Len Dykstra in his Phila days. Dykstra told him that when the Dodgers came to town the entire batting cage discussion between Strawberry and Davis was, “where we going after the game?”

T-Bone

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

The third member of that trio was Chris Brown, Giants 3b Who had 2 pretty good first full seasons and then was out of Baseball 3 years later. All three of these guys were friends and went to school together. All three had potential, to different levels maybe, and didn’t fulfill that potential. Chris Brown died of burns after a suspicious house fire at age 45.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to T-Bone

Interesting Chris Brown tangent: There’s nothing in the record of his 6 minor-league years on the way up that gave the slightest indication that he was capable of those first 2 years (125 OPS+ in about 1,000 PAs). He was absolutely average to below-average in all 4 levels.

He did have a .319 BAbip in those 2 years, which he was utterly unable to sustain; his BAbip was .262 thereafter, though his 650 PAs isn’t enough to draw strong conclusions, and he was never really healthy then either.

Tristram12

12 years ago

Reply to Paul E

That weekend was against the Phils, and I watched every game. I still believe that Eric Davis, for that brief period of time, was the best player ever. It was unbelievable.

nightfly

12 years ago

Reply to Jimbo

Such a beast through the second half of the 80’s. He broke in full-time at 24 with that insane 27 hr – 80 sb year, dominated until he turned 30, but couldn’t stay healthy. I looked up his 162 game averages, and they are eye-popping. A healthy Eric Davis, based on his 162 game averages and an earlier full-time spot, could have reached 450 homers and 550 steals – and one HoF plaque. (Over 10,000 PA, he was on pace for 2326 hits, 459 hr, and 568 sb.) He and Darryl Strawberry are the great what-if hitters of my teen… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to nightfly

I know he’s a somewhat different different type of hitter – more BA, less walks- but Davis reminded me of Fred Lynn. They both had long careers as mostly CFers, and when they did play they were usually good to excellent, and sometimes awesome, but almost every year they got hurt and missed a good chunk of games, almost never playing an entire season. I think that the 162-game averages for players like Davis and Lynn are very deceptive. Davis’ 162-game averages for HR, runs, and RBI are 28, 93, and 93. He exceeded this in an actual season only… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Doug:

Isn’t it possible that Kotchman was erased from the basepaths by force-outs more more often than he forced out other players?

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Very possible, Richard. Upton did hit into 16 DP last yerar – the highest of his career. Since he is so fast, I would suspect he also beat out a lot of potential double plays.

On the other hand, Upton had only a 0.71 GB/FB ratio, the lowest of his career. So, hard to say. Maybe it was just one of those things – Upton didn’t hit a lot of ground balls, but when he did, more often than not the ball was hit right at someone and Kotchman was on base.

kds

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

I don’t suppose there is any easy way to find out if he was the runner on first when the batter GDP’s an excessive number of times? A little surprised not to see Big Hurt on the low % list, all the complaints I heard about him clogging the bases when he was in Toronto. But I guess that scoring has dropped and the 20% level is more likely to not be reached when r/g is lower.

12 years ago

Kotchman also had problems driving in runs last year. I wonder how his combined R/RBI total ranks for guys with a similar OPS+ (128) in full time play?

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

He’s all alone. At least, recently.

Since 1901 (and excluding 1981 and 1994) there are 38 qualifying seasons with R <= 50, RBI <= 50, SLG > 0.400 and OPS+ > 120.

The last player to do this before Kotchman was Tony Cuccinello in 1945.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Wally Schang turned that trick 5 times in his career, including 4 times in 5 year (1914-18). Only Mike Grady (1904-05) has also done it more than once.

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Thanks Doug. I took a look at the 3 players you mentioned – Schang, Grady, and Cuccinello and they all had a lot fewer plate appearances than Kotchman. So I tightened up the criteria and used R<=49, RBI= 120, PAs>= 502. I dropped the slugging percentage criteria since that’s a bit redundant with OPS+. I got exactly 3 names. Bill Rariden in 1915 in the Federal League. Nick Etten in 1942. And Kotchman. Etten has by far the fewest combined Rs/RBIs with only 78 (37 runs, 41 RBIs). BTW, including the slugging percentage criteria means that Kotchman is the only… Read more »

bstar

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

very interesting stuff, guys.

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Oops….that should obviously read R<=49, RBIs= 120, PAs>= 502. I swear that’s what I typed the first time.

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Okay very weird, I’m typing one thing but something else is showing up in my comment. Must have something to do with the symbols. So I’ll try this one more time.

Runs and RBIs are less than or equal to 49.
OPS+ is greater than or equal to 120.
PAs are greater than or equal to 502.

Those are the criteria I used which yielded the three names of Rariden, Etten and Kotchman.

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

BTW, between OPS+ 100 and 119, there have been 23 seasons in which a player scored and drove in 49 or fewer runs. At OPS+ of 99 and below, it’s been down 235 times.

Hartvig

12 years ago

Great stuff. My only “complaint” is that you’ve already addressed every issue that come to mind for me to comment on.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Just for fun, here’s the first list, ordered by the player’s R/G as a percentage of his team’s R/G: (1) Rickey Henderson, 1985 NYY, 19.6% (2) Eric Davis, 1987 CIN, 19.2% (3) Carlos Beltran, 2006 NYM, 17.6% (4) Zoilo Versalles, 1965 MIN, 16.9% (5) Robin Yount, 1980 MIL, 16.9% (6) Curtis Granderson, 2011 NYY, 16.3% (7) Alex Rodriguez, 1999 SEA, 16.1% (8) Jim Edmonds, 1995 CAL, 15.4% (9) Alfonso Soriano, 2002 NYY, 14.7% (10) Steve Finley, 1997 SDP, 14.4% (11) David Dellucci, 2005 TEX, 14.2% (12) Willie Wilson, 1979 KCR, 14% (13) Ivan Rodriguez, 1999 TEX, 13.8% (14) Tony Armas,… Read more »

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Very interesting post, Doug. Got my research juices flowing. Here are the guys with highest career ratio of runs to times on base (min. 3,000 career PAs)(only guys who debuted in the majors in 1901 or later):
1. Red Rolfe, 48.81%
2. Jack Smith 47.23%
3. Pepper Martin 46.93%
4. Earle Combs 46.46%
5. Joe DiMaggio 45.45%
6. Gerald Williams 45.36%
7. Curtis Granderson 45.12%

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

I’ll state the obvious: Gerald Williams is a pretty big shock on that list. He had only medium power and was an inefficient base stealer. He did play in a high-scoring era, but he played for a mix of teams; he tallied only 125 runs with the Yankees, and the 2000-01 Rays (for whom he led off) were last in AL scoring.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Jack Smith broke 50% four times (1921-24). Tommy Leach, Red Rolfe and Joe DiMaggio each did it 3 times. 15 other players did it twice.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Tommy Leach debuted in 1898 but for his playing years after 1900 his percentage was 45.26%.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

David Dellucci is another what-if kinda player. .995 ops at age 23 in AA, taken by Arizona in the expansion draft. Had an uneven rookie season, not showing a lot of power but leading the league in triples. The Diamondbacks chose to spend big – get veterans – win now, though. And it worked. in 2000 their outfielders were Luis Gonzales (31) Steve Finley (34) Tony Womack (29) Bernard Gilkey (32) They won 100 games, and Dellucci played a part… as a pinch hitter. Strange to see a young (in service time) player put in that role, but he excelled.… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Voomo Zanzibar

Nice report on Dellucci … but I still think that PHing him in that spot was the best thing Torre did all night.

Voomo Zanzibar

12 years ago

Reply to John Autin

Yeah, you’re probably right.
Though I wish he had sent Wells out there with his back spasms to just step into a pitch.

brp

12 years ago

That second list makes me wonder why Oquendo was qualified to be a 3rd base coach. Clearly he didn’t have much experience rounding it as a player…

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to brp

Don’t blame Oquendo. Both those Cardinals teams were next-to-last in NL scoring (3.57 and 3.70 R/G), plus Whitey had him in the bottom of the order.

Tmckelv

12 years ago

The much overlooked 1994 Kirk Gibson season is on here. Nice.

Also, 2 of my early 1970’s San Diego Padres make the bottom list (Ollie Brown and Fred Kendall).

Editor

birtelcom

12 years ago

Bruce Benedict, who played for the Braves through their bad years in the late 1970s and through all of the 1980s, but retired too soon for Atlanta’s great years in the ’90s, actually had a full career, over 3,000 PAs, while scoring less than 20% of his times on base. He’s the only player in MLB history to do that with 3,000 PAs or more. Four other guys, all catchers, had careers scoring under 20% of times on base with between 1,500 and 3,000 career PAs: Mike LaValliere, Chris Cannizzaro, Ron Hodges and Jeff Torborg. None of these guys made… Read more »

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Thanks Birtelcom,

I looked up notorious slowpoke Ernie Lombardi. He had a career mark of 26.5%, and was under 20% in a season only once.

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Lowest single-season rate in a qualifying season.

Doc Miller of the Reds, 12.3% in 1914. It was Miller’s only season under 27%.

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

Well it makes sense. The five catchers that Britelcom mentioned all had three things in common: 1) they were catchers = slow, 2) they hit very few home runs = couldn’t drive themselves in, 3) they batted low in the batting order, mostly 7th or 8th so they had the pitcher coming up soon afterwards. Lombardi on the other hand, mostly hit 5th and 6th, and had the power to drive himself home via homeruns. Which brings me to a point I wanted to make….wouldn’t it make more sense to do these charts with runs scored via homeruns subtracted out?… Read more »

Author

Doug

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Ed,

Here is the list of players to score 50% of TOB, excluding HRs. Hasn’t been done since 1937. Yount came close with 49.7% in 1980.

Here are the guys abover 54%. The amazing one is the last – Simmons had 36 HR, none of the other had more than 9 (Martin). Including HR, Simmons’ rate was 60.6%.
– Pepper Martin, 59.9%, 1935 STL
– Tommy Leach, 55.8%, 1909, PIT
– Mark Koenig,55.2%, 1927, NYY
– Woody English, 54.6%, 1929, CHC
– Jack Smith, 54.6%, 1924, STL
– Donie Bush, 54.3%, 1911, DET
– Al Simmons, 54.0%, 1930, PHA

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Doug

If you thought major league run scoring was ridiculous in the steroids era, then what to think about 1930? The average runs per team per game in 1999-2000 was about 5.1 runs. In 1930 the average was over 5.5.

TheGoof

12 years ago

The only guy on the top chart who played for a pennant winner was Zoilo. Wow.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to TheGoof

Tommy Harper also scored 126 runs in 1965 (same as Zoilo), leading the NL. He just missed this list, {126 runs/262 times on base}. Harper only scored 100+ runs one other time, in 1970.

Interesting player – as Bill James said, Harper could do a number of things well, but he never did them all at the same time.

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

That 1965 Reds offense has to rank as one of the best ever and possibly the most balanced ever. They scored 5.1 runs a game against a league average of 4.0. That’s a 27.5% difference. For comparisons sake, the famed ’27 Yankees scored 29% more than the league average. The ’65 Reds had 9 players with 300+ plate appearances. All of them had an OPS+ of 100 or greater, but none was higher than 151. If you drop the criteria to 100 plate appearances, they’re 11 for 11 in players with OPS+ about 100. You have to go to Jimmie… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

1965 wasn’t even Harper’s best year, that was 1970. It looks like his runs scored in 1965 were the result of all those plate appearances (745 – 2nd), and all those good hitters coming up behind him. Everything else about his season is decent but doesn’t jump out at you – .340 OBA, 166 hits, 78 walks, 49 XBH, 35 SB.

Frank Crosetti is one of those with the {120 runs>, >.340 OBP} combo in 1937; he had a season similar to Harper’s in that he scored 127 runs with a .340 OBP, but a 73 OPS+(!).

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

And two years later, in 1939, Crosetti scored over 100 runs with an OPB of .315. So he’s also one of only 19 players to score over 100 runs with an OBP below .320. He also scored over 100 runs in 1936 and 1938, but those two years his OPB was above .380!

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

BTW, only two players have scored over 100 runs with an OBP below .300. Hughie Critz (.292) in 1930 and Jimmy Rollins (.296) in 2009. Tony Armas did it with an OPB of exactly .300 (displayed in Doug’s first chart).

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

#48/ Ed –
Crosetti was at “the right place at the right time”. He was on the field for 23 World Series, winning 17 (7 as player, 10 as coach – coached the Yankees from 1949-68).

Red Rolfe had a similar type of offensive profle at a somewhat higher level, scoring loads of runs for the Yankees with numbers that looked decent, but not oustanding.