Paul Konerko was a first-round draft pick by the Dodgers in 1994. Coming into the league with high expectations, he bounced around early, first getting traded to the Reds and later to the White Sox. He was a good player for Chicago from 1999 to 2002, playing second fiddle (and sometimes even third or fourth fiddle) to Frank Thomas, Magglio Ordonez, and even Carlos Lee.
Then, in 2003, as Konerko was in what should have been his prime Age 27 season, he posted a stinker instead. He had a .234 batting average, 83 OPS+, and lead MLB with 28 GiDPs.
Many people wrote him off at that point, figuring he’d never recover enough to become a star. And yet–that’s exactly what he’s done. Quietly, he’s posted some fantastic seasons lately and may have crept into consideration for the Hall of Fame.
Let’s take a look at his career arc.
Over the first 6 years of his career (through Age 26), Konerko put up an OPS+ of 112 in 2677 PAs. Here’s a comp group for that:
Rk | PA | From | To | Age | HR | RBI | Pos | Tm | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Craig Biggio | 2591 | 108 | 1988 | 1992 | 22-26 | 30 | 192 | .720 | *24/879 | HOU |
2 | Mickey Cochrane | 2607 | 117 | 1925 | 1929 | 22-26 | 43 | 334 | .858 | *2 | PHA |
3 | Dan Driessen | 2654 | 114 | 1973 | 1978 | 21-26 | 58 | 346 | .773 | *35/79 | CIN |
4 | Augie Galan | 2749 | 107 | 1934 | 1938 | 22-26 | 49 | 329 | .774 | *78/465 | CHC |
5 | Oscar Gamble | 2582 | 111 | 1969 | 1976 | 19-26 | 80 | 265 | .747 | 9D7/8 | CHC-PHI-CLE-NYY |
6 | Shawn Green | 2766 | 116 | 1993 | 1999 | 20-26 | 119 | 376 | .849 | *9/7D8 | TOR |
7 | Greg Gross | 2654 | 110 | 1973 | 1979 | 20-26 | 6 | 191 | .747 | 978 | HOU-CHC-PHI |
8 | Toby Harrah | 2637 | 108 | 1969 | 1975 | 20-26 | 54 | 270 | .716 | *6/54 | WSA-TEX |
9 | Pete Incaviglia | 2718 | 109 | 1986 | 1990 | 22-26 | 124 | 388 | .773 | *79/D83 | TEX |
10 | Paul Konerko | 2677 | 112 | 1997 | 2002 | 21-26 | 111 | 410 | .831 | *3/D57 | LAD-TOT-CHW |
11 | Derrek Lee | 2671 | 111 | 1997 | 2002 | 21-26 | 99 | 329 | .804 | *3 | SDP-FLA |
12 | Garry Maddox | 2742 | 112 | 1972 | 1976 | 22-26 | 42 | 302 | .771 | *8/79 | SFG-TOT-PHI |
13 | Barney McCosky | 2597 | 112 | 1939 | 1942 | 22-25 | 18 | 220 | .829 | *87/9 | DET |
14 | Rico Petrocelli | 2589 | 115 | 1963 | 1969 | 20-26 | 100 | 302 | .773 | *6/53 | BOS |
15 | Frank Schulte | 2689 | 108 | 1904 | 1909 | 21-26 | 17 | 255 | .684 | *97/8 | CHC |
16 | Ellis Valentine | 2708 | 117 | 1975 | 1981 | 20-26 | 100 | 379 | .790 | *9/87 | MON-TOT |
17 | Earl Williams | 2642 | 111 | 1970 | 1975 | 21-26 | 108 | 364 | .759 | *23/5D | ATL-BAL |
These are the guys since 1901 who, through their Age 26 season, had between 2577 and 2777 PAs and an OPS+ of 107 to 117. Konerko is right in the middle of this group, and it’s certainly not a terrible group. Many of these guys were good players, and Mickey Cochrane and Craig Biggio are HOFers (I’m projecting that for Biggio, at least.)
Now take a look at comps for Konerko’s Age 27 season:
Rk | PA | From | HR | RBI | Pos | Tm | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ronny Cedeno | 502 | 82 | 2010 | 8 | 38 | .256 | .293 | .382 | .675 | *6 | PIT |
2 | Toby Hall | 498 | 81 | 2003 | 12 | 47 | .253 | .295 | .380 | .675 | *2 | TBD |
3 | Roy Johnson | 505 | 85 | 1930 | 2 | 35 | .275 | .333 | .409 | .742 | *9/78 | DET |
4 | Don Kolloway | 500 | 86 | 1946 | 3 | 53 | .280 | .293 | .363 | .656 | /*45 | CHW |
5 | Paul Konerko | 495 | 83 | 2003 | 18 | 65 | .234 | .305 | .399 | .704 | *3/D | CHW |
6 | Hans Lobert | 495 | 86 | 1909 | 4 | 52 | .212 | .304 | .294 | .598 | *5 | CIN |
7 | Bernie Neis | 491 | 84 | 1923 | 5 | 37 | .274 | .330 | .364 | .694 | /*897 | BRO |
8 | Corey Patterson | 503 | 80 | 2007 | 8 | 45 | .269 | .304 | .386 | .690 | *8 | BAL |
9 | Buck Rodgers | 491 | 80 | 1966 | 7 | 48 | .236 | .281 | .339 | .620 | *2 | CAL |
10 | Brian Schneider | 488 | 83 | 2004 | 12 | 49 | .257 | .325 | .399 | .724 | *2 | MON |
11 | Don Zimmer | 495 | 86 | 1958 | 17 | 60 | .262 | .305 | .415 | .720 | *6/547 | LAD |
The horror….the horror….of appearing on a comp list with Corey Patterson. Seriously, can you believe Konerko made this group?
After that, he rebounded very nicely. For his Age 28 through 33 seasons, he had a 123 OPS+ over 3721 PAs. Here’s that comp group:
Rk | PA | From | To | Age | HR | RBI | Pos | Tm | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Felipe Alou | 3702 | 125 | 1963 | 1968 | 28-33 | 109 | 385 | .796 | 8397/56 | SFG-MLN-ATL |
2 | Ernie Banks | 3700 | 124 | 1959 | 1964 | 28-33 | 193 | 603 | .838 | 36/75 | CHC |
3 | Don Buford | 3761 | 118 | 1965 | 1970 | 28-33 | 65 | 307 | .746 | 547/89 | CHW-BAL |
4 | Gary Carter | 3710 | 124 | 1982 | 1987 | 28-33 | 149 | 570 | .809 | *2/3975 | MON-NYM |
5 | Andre Dawson | 3699 | 125 | 1983 | 1988 | 28-33 | 165 | 584 | .819 | *98 | MON-CHC |
6 | Bobby Doerr | 3650 | 118 | 1946 | 1951 | 28-33 | 120 | 624 | .841 | *4 | BOS |
7 | Mark Grace | 3716 | 127 | 1992 | 1997 | 28-33 | 67 | 466 | .852 | *3 | CHC |
8 | Toby Harrah | 3665 | 123 | 1977 | 1982 | 28-33 | 100 | 417 | .811 | *5/6D4 | TEX-CLE |
9 | Baby Doll Jacobson | 3742 | 118 | 1919 | 1924 | 28-33 | 54 | 543 | .851 | *8/937 | SLB |
10 | Paul Konerko | 3721 | 123 | 2004 | 2009 | 28-33 | 197 | 570 | .870 | *3/D | CHW |
11 | Heinie Manush | 3773 | 119 | 1930 | 1935 | 28-33 | 49 | 520 | .848 | *7/8 | TOT-WSH |
12 | Lee May | 3638 | 125 | 1971 | 1976 | 28-33 | 165 | 594 | .786 | *3/D | CIN-HOU-BAL |
13 | Frank McCormick | 3784 | 124 | 1939 | 1944 | 28-33 | 95 | 602 | .801 | *3 | CIN |
14 | Ron Santo | 3817 | 122 | 1968 | 1973 | 28-33 | 139 | 574 | .821 | *5/746 | CHC |
15 | Rusty Staub | 3648 | 122 | 1972 | 1977 | 28-33 | 99 | 494 | .794 | *9D | NYM-DET |
16 | Gus Suhr | 3701 | 119 | 1934 | 1939 | 28-33 | 46 | 518 | .816 | *3/9 | PIT-TOT |
17 | Roy Thomas | 3659 | 128 | 1902 | 1907 | 28-33 | 5 | 150 | .745 | *8 | PHI |
18 | Leon Wagner | 3671 | 122 | 1962 | 1967 | 28-33 | 160 | 496 | .790 | *7/9 | LAA-CLE |
19 | Bill White | 3747 | 124 | 1962 | 1967 | 28-33 | 122 | 522 | .828 | *3/97 | STL-PHI |
These guys are within 100 PAs and 5 OPS+ points of Konerko’s performance. There are 6 Hall of Famers on there, including two who are recently deceased. (Total aside–anybody else notice Toby Harrah showing up multiple times so far?)
Now, check out what Konerko has done in the last 2 seasons. Over his Age 34 and 35 seasons, he’s got a 152 OPS+ over 1270 PAs. Those numbers are positively Steroids Era (by which I mean that we didn’t usually see guys so old blossom so late in their careers.)
Here are the comps for Konerko’s last 2 seasons:
Rk | PA | From | To | Age | HR | RBI | Pos | Tm | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dolph Camilli | 1266 | 153 | 1941 | 1942 | 34-35 | 60 | 229 | .903 | *3 | BRO |
2 | Jim Edmonds | 1179 | 154 | 2004 | 2005 | 34-35 | 71 | 200 | .992 | *8/D3 | STL |
3 | Lou Gehrig | 1389 | 154 | 1937 | 1938 | 34-35 | 66 | 273 | 1.024 | *3 | NYY |
4 | Harmon Killebrew | 1289 | 149 | 1970 | 1971 | 34-35 | 69 | 232 | .905 | *53 | MIN |
5 | Paul Konerko | 1270 | 152 | 2010 | 2011 | 34-35 | 70 | 216 | .941 | *3/D | CHW |
6 | Stan Musial | 1338 | 149 | 1955 | 1956 | 34-35 | 60 | 217 | .940 | *39/7 | STL |
7 | Lefty O’Doul | 1221 | 150 | 1931 | 1932 | 34-35 | 28 | 165 | .932 | *7 | BRO |
8 | Rafael Palmeiro | 1352 | 148 | 1999 | 2000 | 34-35 | 86 | 268 | 1.002 | *D3 | TEX |
9 | Mike Schmidt | 1277 | 151 | 1984 | 1985 | 34-35 | 69 | 199 | .913 | *53/6 | PHI |
10 | Gary Sheffield | 1362 | 152 | 2003 | 2004 | 34-35 | 75 | 253 | .975 | *9/D5 | ATL-NYY |
11 | Larry Walker | 1154 | 156 | 2001 | 2002 | 34-35 | 64 | 227 | 1.068 | *9/D | COL |
Now we’re talking, huh? Four out of the 10 retired guys are Hall of Famers, with Edmonds, Palmeiro, Sheffield, and Walker all still eligible and knocking on the door to different degrees.
Here’s what the other 10 guys from that list did for the rest of their careers:
Rk | From | To | Age | G | PA | HR | RBI | Pos | Tm | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dolph Camilli | 100 | 1943 | 1945 | 36-38 | 158 | 654 | 8 | 62 | .234 | .353 | .343 | .696 | *3 | BRO-BOS |
2 | Jim Edmonds | 107 | 2006 | 2010 | 36-40 | 424 | 1492 | 62 | 201 | .254 | .340 | .460 | .800 | *8/937 | STL-TOT |
3 | Lou Gehrig | 10 | 1939 | 1939 | 36-36 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 1 | .143 | .273 | .143 | .416 | /*3 | NYY |
4 | Harmon Killebrew | 107 | 1972 | 1975 | 36-39 | 436 | 1573 | 58 | 204 | .223 | .339 | .391 | .729 | *3D | MIN-KCR |
5 | Stan Musial | 132 | 1957 | 1963 | 36-42 | 882 | 3225 | 123 | 481 | .305 | .388 | .503 | .890 | 37/9 | STL |
6 | Lefty O’Doul | 134 | 1933 | 1934 | 36-37 | 204 | 633 | 23 | 102 | .294 | .368 | .465 | .833 | 7/9 | TOT-NYG |
7 | Rafael Palmeiro | 126 | 2001 | 2005 | 36-40 | 733 | 3104 | 169 | 488 | .266 | .368 | .510 | .879 | *3D | TEX-BAL |
8 | Mike Schmidt | 134 | 1986 | 1989 | 36-39 | 457 | 1893 | 90 | 322 | .273 | .368 | .497 | .865 | *5/36 | PHI |
9 | Gary Sheffield | 117 | 2005 | 2009 | 36-40 | 540 | 2228 | 94 | 323 | .268 | .364 | .461 | .826 | D9/73 | NYY-DET-NYM |
10 | Larry Walker | 132 | 2003 | 2005 | 36-38 | 325 | 1247 | 48 | 178 | .289 | .411 | .512 | .924 | *9/D8 | COL-TOT-STL |
Other than Lou Gehrig, who couldn’t play past April of 1939 and was deceased 2 years later, these guys all stuck around for at least a few more years. Stan “El Hombre” won a batting title and finished second in the MVP one year. Mike Schmidt posted a HR title, a SLG title, and the 1986 NL MVP.
Anyway, these 10 guys averaged a 123 OPS+ over 1608 PAs for the rest of their career, which amount to 3 very good full seasons. If Konerko can duplicate that average performance, he’ll add about another 75 HR and 300 RBI to his totals, and about another 10 WAR.
Still, that would bring his career WAR total to just 36, a very low total for a Hall of Famer. All those early years without great production certainly hurt his career total.
Anyway, I guess it’s tough to make a good case for Konerko and the Hall of Fame, certainly at this point. He’d really need at least 5 really good more seasons to get serious consideration, I suppose…