From Tim Kurkjian’s appreciation of Gary Carter:
“People ask me who is the best catcher I ever threw to, and the answer is always Gary Carter,” said Ed Lynch, who pitched for the Mets when Carter was with the team. “I don’t say that because he was a great caller of games, or that he blocked every ball in the dirt, or that he caught every game. I say that because every game I pitched, he hit a three-run homer.”
Now, that’s obvious hyperbole; he doesn’t mean that Carter hit a 3-run HR literally every game that Lynch pitched. But I had to chuckle on discovering that Carter never hit a 3-run HR or grand slam in a game that Lynch pitched.
Still, Lynch’s memory could be true in spirit, if Carter hit a lot of home runs or drove in a lot of key runs behind Lynch. And Lynch has a reputation as a pretty sharp guy; he stayed in the game after his playing days were done, serving in various roles, including Cubs GM from 1995-2000. He’s only 55. So when he says that Carter hit great when Lynch pitched, shouldn’t we be able to trust that?
It’s easy to check, since Carter and Lynch were teammates only in 1985 and one game in ’86. And here’s what we find from their game logs:
- Carter played in 30 games that Lynch pitched (see table below) — 29 in 1985 and 1 in ’86.
- He batted .279 (31 for 111) with 4 HRs and 17 RBI, slugging .414 — all below his 1985 norms.
- Had he met those norms in Lynch’s games, he would have hit 6 HRs and driven in 20, with a .281 BA and .488 SLG.
- His biggest offensive game in support of Lynch — the game to which Kurkjian connects the quote — was August 11, 1985, with a pair of go-ahead, 2-run HRs in a 6-2 win, putting the Mets a game ahead of the Cards in their see-saw battle for the division. His Win Probability Added was 0.379 in that game, his highest WPA in support of Lynch.
- The sum of Carter’s other Lynch-game WPAs was negative, with just one other WPA over 0.200. His combined WPA in Lynch games projects to 2.140 for a full season, well below his actual ’85 total of 3.280.
In Lynch’s defense: While Gary Carter’s offensive production on his behalf was not up to Carter’s own standard, it was well above what most catchers could do, and miles above what Lynch had seen from his ’84 backstops, who combined for 2 HRs all year.
But the quote still serves as a reminder that personal recollections often prove unreliable, and are no basis for player evaluation.
One last note: Carter hit 32 HRs in ’85, and hit at least one in support of eight different Mets starters. Here’s the breakdown, in order of HRs per start:
- McDowell, 1 HR in 2 starts — 0.50 HR per start
- Aguilera, 7 HR in 19 starts — 0.37 HR per start
- Berenyi, 1 HR in 3 starts — 0.33 HR per start
- Schiraldi, 1 HR in 4 starts — 0.25 HR per start
- Gooden, 7 HR in 35 starts — 0.20 HR per start
- Fernandez, 5 HR in 26 starts — 0.19 HR per start
- Darling, 6 HR in 35 starts — 0.17 HR per start
- Lynch, 4 HR in 29 starts — 0.14 HR per start
Lynch was favored by a Carter home run less often than any other Mets starter. Naturally.
P.S. Here is Carter’s game log for games that Lynch pitched:
1985 | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | GDP | BOP | WPA | RE24 | Pos |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Apr 13 | CIN | W,2-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -0.163 | -0.92 | C |
Apr 15 | PIT | L,1-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.073 | 0.60 | C |
Apr 20 | PHI | L,6-7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -0.036 | -1.07 | C |
Apr 23 | STL | L,3-8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.036 | -0.03 | C |
Apr 27 | PIT | L,2-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.094 | 0.59 | C |
May | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | GDP | BOP | WPA | RE24 | Pos |
May 3 | CIN | W,9-4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -0.022 | -0.42 | C |
May 8 | ATL | W,4-0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.068 | 0.91 | C |
May 13 | ATL | L,0-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.174 | -0.88 | C |
May 18 | SFG | L,2-8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.150 | -1.08 | C |
May 24 | LAD | L,3-4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.113 | 1.01 | C |
May 29 | SFG | W,4-3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.338 | 1.81 | C |
June | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | GDP | BOP | WPA | RE24 | Pos |
Jun 3 | LAD | L,4-5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.003 | 0.37 | C |
Jun 13 | PHI | L,4-5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.081 | 0.62 | C |
Jun 18 | CHC | W,5-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.194 | 2.04 | C |
Jun 23 | MON | L,1-5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.004 | -0.15 | C |
Jun 28 | STL | L,2-3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.128 | -0.91 | C |
July | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | GDP | BOP | WPA | RE24 | Pos |
Jul 3 | PIT | W,6-2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.018 | 0.33 | C |
Jul 8 | CIN | W,7-5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -0.054 | -0.52 | C |
Jul 13 | HOU | W,10-1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.097 | -0.30 | C |
Jul 31 | MON | W,5-2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.033 | 0.55 | C |
August | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | GDP | BOP | WPA | RE24 | Pos |
Aug 5 | CHC | W,7-2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -0.005 | -0.83 | C |
Aug 11 | CHC | W,6-2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.379 | 3.37 | C |
Aug 21 | SFG | L,2-3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.027 | 0.66 | C |
Aug 26 | LAD | L,1-6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.002 | -0.27 | C |
Sept. | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | GDP | BOP | WPA | RE24 | Pos |
Sep 1 | SFG | W,4-3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.074 | 0.61 | 1B C |
Sep 7 | LAD | L,6-7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -0.011 | 0.54 | C |
Sep 12 | STL | W,7-6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -0.015 | -0.08 | C |
Sep 17 | PHI | L,1-5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -0.031 | -0.29 | C |
Sep 27 | PIT | L,7-8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -0.199 | -1.14 | C |
1986 | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | GDP | BOP | WPA | RE24 | Pos |
Apr 12 | PHI | L,8-9 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.092 | -0.30 | C |