Famous flameouts

33 Replies

Here are players who posted a very strong 1st or 2nd season (specifically they had to be among the 172 guys since 1901 to qualify for the batting title with an OPS+ of at least 125 in either year) but finished with a career OPS+ no higher than 110:

Rk	Player	OPS+	From	To	G	PA	R	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pos	Tm
1	Greasy Neale	94	1916	1924	768	2989	319	71	50	8	200	.259	.319	.332	.651	978	TOT-CIN
2	Red Barnes	95	1927	1930	286	952	152	41	24	8	97	.269	.347	.404	.752	*8/79	WSH-TOT
3	Grady Hatton	96	1946	1960	1312	4912	562	166	33	91	533	.254	.354	.374	.728	*54/376	CIN-TOT-BOS-CHC
4	Vic Power	97	1954	1965	1627	6461	765	290	49	126	658	.284	.315	.411	.725	*34/58796	PHA-KCA-CLE-MIN-TOT-CAL
5	Chad Tracy	98	2004	2010	773	2747	304	161	9	79	333	.278	.337	.445	.782	53/9D7	ARI-TOT
6	Ralph Hodgin	98	1939	1948	530	1822	198	79	24	4	188	.285	.330	.367	.697	75/98	BSN-CHW
7	Walt Dropo	100	1949	1961	1288	4521	478	168	22	152	704	.270	.326	.432	.757	*3/5	BOS-DET-CHW-TOT-BAL
8	Chet Ross	100	1939	1944	413	1442	156	53	21	34	170	.241	.309	.392	.701	*7/98	BSN
9	Dick Porter	100	1929	1934	675	2844	426	159	37	11	282	.308	.376	.414	.790	*9/47	CLE-TOT
10	Billy Grabarkewitz	101	1969	1975	466	1390	189	41	12	28	141	.236	.351	.364	.716	54/6D7	LAD-TOT-OAK
11	Max Flack	101	1914	1925	1411	5905	783	212	72	35	391	.278	.342	.366	.708	*97/8	CHI-CHC-TOT-STL
12	Snuffy Stirnweiss	102	1943	1952	1028	4292	604	157	68	29	281	.268	.362	.371	.733	*45/6	NYY-TOT-CLE
13	Colby Rasmus	103	2009	2011	420	1580	232	74	11	53	171	.251	.322	.432	.754	*8/79D	STL-TOT
14	Ira Flagstead	103	1917	1930	1219	4791	644	262	50	40	450	.290	.370	.407	.776	*89/6745	DET-TOT-BOS-PIT
15	Benny Meyer	103	1913	1925	310	1236	146	29	17	7	84	.265	.365	.346	.711	*9/78642	BRO-BAL-TOT-PHI
16	Jim Lefebvre	104	1965	1972	922	3417	313	126	18	74	404	.251	.323	.378	.701	*45/37	LAD
17	Marty Kavanagh	105	1914	1918	370	1192	138	47	20	10	122	.249	.330	.362	.693	4/397586	DET-CLE-TOT
18	Tom Brunansky	106	1981	1994	1800	7169	804	306	33	271	919	.245	.327	.434	.761	*9/78D3	CAL-MIN-STL-BOS-MIL-TOT
19	George Watkins	106	1930	1936	894	3526	490	192	42	73	420	.288	.347	.443	.790	978/34	STL-NYG-PHI-TOT
20	Johnny Pesky	107	1942	1954	1270	5516	867	226	50	17	404	.307	.394	.386	.780	654	BOS-DET-TOT
21	Pinky Higgins	107	1930	1946	1802	7554	930	374	51	140	1075	.292	.370	.428	.798	*5/46	PHA-BOS-DET-TOT
22	Harry Anderson	108	1957	1961	484	1785	199	82	16	60	242	.264	.334	.450	.784	*7/39	PHI-TOT-CIN
23	Bing Miller	108	1921	1936	1821	6885	946	389	96	116	990	.311	.359	.461	.820	*978/3	WSH-PHA-TOT-SLB-BOS
24	Duffy Lewis	108	1910	1921	1459	6007	612	289	68	38	793	.284	.333	.384	.717	*7/8195	BOS-NYY-WSH
25	Bob Hamelin	109	1993	1998	497	1505	179	70	3	67	209	.246	.352	.464	.816	*D3	KCR-DET-MIL
26	Vada Pinson	110	1958	1975	2470	10403	1366	485	127	256	1170	.286	.327	.442	.769	*897/3D	CIN-STL-CLE-CAL-KCR
27	Charlie Hollocher	110	1918	1924	760	3390	411	145	35	14	241	.304	.370	.392	.762	*6	CHC

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 2/8/2012.

There are a lot of olde-timey players on here, but a few more recent examples:

Chad Tracy was great in his second season with the Diamondbacks, then good for a couple of years, then not so good, then not in the majors in 2011.
Colby Rasmus was great in his second season (2010) with the Cardinals, and started off pretty well last year before crashing and burning after the trade to Toronto.
Tom Brunansky had one outstanding season–his first in 1982. He posted many solid seasons after that but lived off the reputation earned as a rookie.
Bob Hamelin was Rookie of the Year in 1994 and then awful in 1995. He rebounded nicely in 1996 and 1997 but finished in the majors after 1998.

0 0 votes

Article Rating

33 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

Max

12 years ago

I read the criteria and immediately thought of Claudell Washington, but he fell 6 points shy of getting the 125 for the first two seasons.

Will we be getting an opposite list of players who had awful rookie/sophmore seasons who turned out to be good players? (bizzaro-flameouts? slow starters?) Or of course a companion piece on pitchers and ERA+?

Kahuna Tuna

12 years ago

Reply to Max

Or of course a companion piece on pitchers and ERA+?

Fidrych.

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Reply to Kahuna Tuna

(We need a button for “Likes … ruefully.”)

MikeD

12 years ago

Reply to Max

I’m thinking the bizarro chart might have many more names, such as a Mike Schmidt. I guess it would depend on where data points were set, meaning how low is low and how high is high.

12 years ago

I would be interested in seeing what it looks like with career PAs rather than career OPS. I mean Joe Charboneau just cries out to be on any list of flameouts. First year OPS+ of 129 in 512 PAs. Only played two more seasons, during which he got only 138 and 56 PAs and turned in OPS+ of 74 and 84. I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone with those first year credentials who ended up with only 722 career PAs.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Ed, Yes, I agree; this seems to be a fundamentally wrong interpretaton of the term “flameout”. To me, it’s a player whose first full season or two are excellent, but then they quickly decline and their career is fairly short; there should be some maximum number of Games Played or PA, as Ed said. How about 800 G or 2500 PA? Tom Brunansky, Pinky Higgins, and especially Vada Pinson (!) were all players who had quite long, very good careers. Johnny Pesky started his career with three MVP-level careers, but had the misfortune to have the heart of his career… Read more »

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Lawrence Azrin

One similar name to Reiser that popped into my head when I read the headlines was Tony Conigliaro but he had almost 500 games in 4 seasons under his belt at the time of his beaning at age 22.

Ben Grieve was another name that came to mind but his career was more of a fizzle out (at least based on expectations) than flameout.

I do agree that Charboneau should pretty much be the poster child of this sort of headline.

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Hartvig, Yes, I also thought of Tony C., but: – he had _four_ straight very good years at the start of his career, not just one or two -his decline was not due to a loss in ability, but one incredibly devastating beaning, that took away a lot of his vision (he was basically batting with one good eye after 1967) From the list posted at the top, I’d call Billy Grabarkewitz (ROY,then ???) and Bob Hamelin (same) “true” flameouts. Many of the rest, as Hartvig so aptly states, are more like “fizzle outs”. Several (which I mentioned in comment… Read more »

CursedClevelander

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

Things you learn randomly from BB-Ref: Joe Charboneau went 1 for 1 with the Canton Crocodiles of the Frontier League in 2000 when he was 45 years old.

As far as I can tell from searching on Google, Super Joe was the Crocs’ hitting coach, and he came out of retirement for one PA and singled.

Dave V.

12 years ago

The first guy I thought of was Kevin Maas (but while he had a 150 OPS+ in his rookie season, he “only” had 300 PA’s, so he doesn’t qualify for this list).

Kahuna Tuna

12 years ago

Bill James’ NBJHBA flameouts by decade: 1900s: Harry Lumley 1910s: Josh Devore 1920s: Carson Bigbee 1930s: Bill DeLancey 1940s: Dick Wakefield 1950s: Johnny Groth 1960s: Zoilo Versalles 1970s: Bobby Tolan and Mitchell Page 1980s: Oddibe McDowell and Juan Samuel 1990s: Phil Plantier James took a more nuanced approach than the one used here. Half of James’s guys fit the classic “great start, quick decline, short career” pattern (Lumley, Devore, DeLancey, Page, McDowell, and Plantier). Groth, Wakefield, and Samuel had the good start but then played quite a few years at a much lower level. Bigbee, Versalles, and Tolan took several… Read more »

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Kahuna Tuna

Wakefield’s career was similar to Stirnweiss’ in that his big years occurred during the talent-deprived WWII years.

Luis Gomez

12 years ago

When I read the headline, I thought of Marty Cordova and Ron Kittle. Cordova had 3.0 WAR in his first season, 3.4 WAR the rest of his 9-year carrer. Ron Kittle had 1.8WAR in his ROY season with 570 Plate appeareances, and a 1.8 WAR`, 196 PA in 1989. He accumulated another 1.8 the rest of his 10-year carrer.
Not exactly the criteria Andy used, but those were the flameouts I thought of.

Dr. Remulak

12 years ago

Vada Pinson was on a HOF track through age 26, and was simply ordinary from then on. Was he hampered by injuries? Peaking by age 26 is odd.

birtelcom

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Remulak

Bill James in his New Historical Abstract said Pinson was actually born two years earlier than b-ref and other standard references indicate, though James does not cite a reference for that information. SABR’s bio of Pinson says that “several recent publications” claim the earlier birth date. If James is right, then Pinson began his dramatic decline from HOF-level to merely ordinary after reaching 28, not 26. If Pinson really was just 26 in 1965 then his 37.7 WAR through that season really was spectacular: 26th all-time in career (non-pitching) WAR through age 26 (among those 26 guys with a 37.7… Read more »

Lawrence Azrin

12 years ago

Reply to birtelcom

Birtelcom,

Pinson reminds me a bit of Carlos Baerga, who was an All-Star from 23-26, but then ordinary (or worse) for another ten years after that. That’s not a “flameout”, but more like an extended “fizzle”.

Useless fact; Baerga had 14.8 WAR those four years (1992-95), and 16.0 for his entire career.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

And how does Buzz Arlett fit into the picture? In his only year in the majors, 1931, his OPS+ was 138. His poor fielding relegated him to the minors for the rest of his baseball career where he fared extremely well. SABR has selected him as the greatest minor league player ever.

CursedClevelander

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

Personally, I wouldn’t consider Arlett a “flameout” because he succeeded at every level. I think his relegation back to the minors after 1931 was mostly a matter of age. Were he a younger man when he put up that excellent season with the bat, some MLB team would have found a place for his (admittedly poor) glove. IIRC, Bill James said he was likely just as good as the likes of Chuck Klein and Hack Wilson, if not better.

Dr. Remulak

12 years ago

A bit unfair to characterize Pesky as a flameout. Through the age of 31 he hit >.300 and scored >100 runs every year but one. WWII service robbed him of three years in the middle of his prime.

Dr. Remulak

12 years ago

And Snuffy Stirnweiss is about the opposite of Pesky: he had two huge years in 1944-45, playing against the old and the infirm. When the big dogs returned from WWII, he regressed to average. He must have had flat feet.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Dr. Remulak

Stirnweiss was one of the fastest runners in baseball. He was an All-American halfback for the University of North Carolina.

Hartvig

12 years ago

Reply to Richard Chester

I had always assumed that Walt Dropo got his late start due in part to the war but it turns out it was college and professional football that caused the delay. It also seems a bit unusual for the reigning ROY who led the league in RBI & total bases the year before to spend a quarter of the next season back in the minors.

Learn something new on this website darned near every day.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Hartvig

Dropo broke his wrist prior tothestart of the 1951 season so perhaps that had an effect on his poor season. In 1952, while with the Tigers, he tied two records, 12 consecutive hits and 15 hits in 4 games. In his 1950 rookie year he became the first rookie to have more RBIs than games played (144 RBI/136 G).

12 years ago

Another type of flameout is the guy who stars in the minor leagues but can’t make the adjustment to the majors despite repeated opportunities. Guys like Brad Komminsk and Marc Newfield.

Mike L

12 years ago

Reply to Ed

I’d throw in Dave McCarty in there. First round pick, .312/.400/.533 slash line at AAA, and an eleven year major league career with only 632 games at .242/.305/.371. He hit 31 HR’s for Toledo in 1999, and a total of 36 HR’s in the majors.

12 years ago

Reply to Mike L

I almost mentioned McCarty but wasn’t sure how familiar people were with him. He was on my fantasy team so I know his quite well. McCarty actually looked pretty good when he was first called up…he got hits in 17 of his first 18 games and was batting .365. He then went into a tailspin and never recovered.

Craig

12 years ago

Greasy Neale made up for being on this list by being an amazing football coach for the Eagles. He’s in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I also noticed that he won a World Series AND an NFL championship. I imagine that’s pretty elite company and will never happen again.

Richard Chester

12 years ago

Reply to Craig

Deion Sanders came close, being on two Super Bowl winners and being with the Braves in their losing 1992 WS.

Steven

12 years ago

I thought of Jim Lefebvre as soon as I saw the topic. He got injured a lot after 1966.

nightfly

12 years ago

This really hurts to put this name out there, but just because of the heights of his first two or three years: Dwight Gooden. He had a great rookie year, that insane 1985, a good ’86… and he was never as good after that. Before he even turned 22, he had thrown the three best seasons of his career, and was decent-to-mediocre the rest of the way. WAR/ERA+, 1984-1986: 21.5, 155 (7.9 WAR/162 G) WAR/ERA+, 1987-2000: 26.1, 102 (3.3 WAR/162 G) min WAR/ERA+ 1984-86: 4.4, 126 (both in 1986) max WAR/ERA+ post 86: 3.8 (1987), 127 (1998) Even though the… Read more »

Dr. Doom

12 years ago

Reply to nightfly

… but seriously – 218 innings at 19 (!!!), 276 2/3 at 20, 250 at 21, down to 179 2/3 at 22, but then immediately up to 248 1/3 at 23. That means that, before his age 24 season, Doc had already thrown 1172 2/3 innings (basically 235 per year). It’s really no surprise that he wound up with so many issues later in his career. Sure, it’s not as many as Bob Feller, but he’s one of the few people to handle a load anything like that and actually end up having a successful career. It’s really too bad… Read more »

Editor

John Autin

12 years ago

Andy’s posts really stir up the juices! I took another angle: I collected hitters in their first 2 seasons combined (though 2009) with at least a 120 OPS+ and 500 PAs, then looked at the rest of their careers. There were 180 players in the study. Fewest PAs: Player….. … PA … From … To … Age Larry Schlafly … 246 … 1907 … 1914 … 28-35 Troy Neel … 320 … 1994 … 1994 … 28-28 Len Koenecke … 374 … 1935 … 1935 … 31-31 Duke Kenworthy … 461 … 1915 … 1917 … 28-30 Joe Connolly …… Read more »

MikeD

12 years ago

I thought for sure Mitchell Page would be on this list. I went back and looked at his career and the rapid fall from grace is there, yet it’s not quite as I remembered it. He still was effective at time, he just didn’t ever seem to play, either because of injury or something else.